I was dismayed at Trump's comment when the protests got underway that 'help is on the way', which obviously acted as an encouragement for continuing same. Unfortunately, the long game is not Trump's long suit. Off the cuff remarks are his trademark and counting on them to actually drive his behaviour is unwise to understate matters. I very much doubt Trump will risk anything in Iran ahead of the midterm elections as he is the 'peace president', the 'president who doesn't embark on endless wars', the 'president who does not attend soldier funerals, because there won't be any on his watch', the 'president denied the Nobel Peace Prize', and, 'what's in it for me' president. Taking out the well embedded, to put it mildly, Iranian regime is a long game, not short, with very uncertain outcomes. It will almost certainly involve troops. Doubt America is willing to use troops. Bombing is their MO. And, bombing won't do the job. As pointed out in the article, the repression apparatus is well entrenched and getting rid of it is not five minutes work.
We see the same 'shock and awe' model in action in Venezuela. Trump has no idea as to what to do now. Keeping the same villains in their jobs is not likely a short road to 'fixing' the country - corrupt extraction of Venezuelan wealth is not a good look for the 'land of the free', which seems to be the idea. Exxon's CEO was quite correct that Venezuela is not investable until civil society returns, with the rule of law, property rights, and internal security. None of that is on the horizon.
These are not happy times.
All said, no tears for the Ayatollahs and no tears for Maduro. But follow through and determination and commitment are required to achieve lasting, positive change and see none of it.
Historical examples please.....failing that....wait until the fascist religious zealots and their enablers are all gathered in one place, and one good size missile will solve it. Perhaps leave that up to Israel, as they appear to be one of the few militaries with the ability, resolve, and the gonads to do it.
Notice the equivalent outpouring of public support for the Iranian civilians being massacred by their government, the same as we saw condemning Israel for its 'genocide' against Hamas. So principled. Look at all the university encampments championing the human rights of the Iranian victims. Note the classroom disruptions of Islamic Studies about Shia and Sunni sects, the loud call for divestment of those who do business with the Shia regime or those who fail to boycott its allies, the marches held by women demanding if no justice for their Iranian sisters, then no peace. This response isn't Islamophobic, of course; it's virtuously just a criticism of Iran's current government and its willingness to kill and murder its own future in the name of protecting its religious colonizing apartheid past. In fact, thousands are taking to the streets across the west waving Iranian flags and calling for death to the Mullahs because they're on the right side of history, donchaknow. Parliament will vote to recognize only the anti-clerical Iranian people and take this to the UN that is busy with lawyers assembling human rights cases against the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard machine gunning mosque congregants and publicly naming the clerics who support it. World outrage is growing...
Oh... wait...
Crickets.
But the treatment of Israel isn't anti-Semitic, of course. No, no, no. It's just anti-Zionist. Highly principled, in fact. Not a speck of Jew hatred in sight.
One key difference with the watermelon crowd: all evidence points to an actual democide of the Iranian people, where none has happened in Gaza (this does not negate the horrible predicament Palestinians find themselves in, but genocide it is not).
And if we are to consider Hamas "palestinian" in any way, then it is entirely self-inflicted.
But I would be more inclined to paint Hamas as an occupying force in Palestine, much like Persians are describing the IR as the same.
The analogy is imperfect as you rightly point out; it's the absence of domestic public concern for the Iranian tragedy that reveals the breathtaking scope of the moral hypocrisy hard at work against Jews by those who would never dream they were deeply anti-Semitic in spite of such an obvious discrepancy in their behaviour and lack of a working moral compass. Too virtuous to have one, I guess, and too cowardly and craven to start having one that works on moral principle now.
Not all progressives, mind you, but I agree with you that the silence on the Iranian situation from the larger left of the political spectrum is both appaling and obviously hypocritical.
There are, as I noted, some left-of-centre commentators cheering for the end of the Islamists hold on Iran, if more quietly than their right-of-centre counterparts.
The US doing anything in Iran would be utterly stupid... especially in light of what its government is doing at home. US foreign policy has been devoid of thought, going back to Afghanistan. "Let's drop bombs and then figure out what our goals are" has. The two regimes aren't as far apart as I think we'd like them to be. The US regime isn't exactly stable or popular either. Any US action is just a distraction from Epstein, and there are no lengths Trump won't go to attempting to keep that genie in the bottle.
The desired effect is simply to tip the scales to give the voice back to the majority. Disrupt the regimes communication and propaganda network then add small arms and some training. If this doesn't work the resistance probably wasn't in the majority anyway. Seems like pretty standard CIA operating procedure to me.
It has been reported that over the last few days large currency flows are leaving Iran seeking a safer domain. The powerful & connected are realizing it is a sinking ship and are seeking a Plan B.
Until the military, particularily the IRCG, determines it is in their own best interest to switch sides there will be no regime change but things can happen very quickly - just look at Venezuela.
Nothing has changed in Venezuala - the regime did not fall; Maduro's VP took over from the dictatorial president, who is 'currently vacationing in a US detention facility'.
I'd say it's even odds that Maduro is either convicted or acquited on the charges levied against him, and I'd bet on acquital on a technicality or two (such as being kidnapped) and that Maduro will end up retiring somewhere nice and not near Venezuala or the USA, courtesy of the American taxpayer (funded by all of Trump's oil revenues from Venezuala, presumably).
For the people of Venezuala, at least at the moment, it's sadly life as it was before Maduro was whisked away.
I think this analysis pretty solid.
I was dismayed at Trump's comment when the protests got underway that 'help is on the way', which obviously acted as an encouragement for continuing same. Unfortunately, the long game is not Trump's long suit. Off the cuff remarks are his trademark and counting on them to actually drive his behaviour is unwise to understate matters. I very much doubt Trump will risk anything in Iran ahead of the midterm elections as he is the 'peace president', the 'president who doesn't embark on endless wars', the 'president who does not attend soldier funerals, because there won't be any on his watch', the 'president denied the Nobel Peace Prize', and, 'what's in it for me' president. Taking out the well embedded, to put it mildly, Iranian regime is a long game, not short, with very uncertain outcomes. It will almost certainly involve troops. Doubt America is willing to use troops. Bombing is their MO. And, bombing won't do the job. As pointed out in the article, the repression apparatus is well entrenched and getting rid of it is not five minutes work.
We see the same 'shock and awe' model in action in Venezuela. Trump has no idea as to what to do now. Keeping the same villains in their jobs is not likely a short road to 'fixing' the country - corrupt extraction of Venezuelan wealth is not a good look for the 'land of the free', which seems to be the idea. Exxon's CEO was quite correct that Venezuela is not investable until civil society returns, with the rule of law, property rights, and internal security. None of that is on the horizon.
These are not happy times.
All said, no tears for the Ayatollahs and no tears for Maduro. But follow through and determination and commitment are required to achieve lasting, positive change and see none of it.
Historical examples please.....failing that....wait until the fascist religious zealots and their enablers are all gathered in one place, and one good size missile will solve it. Perhaps leave that up to Israel, as they appear to be one of the few militaries with the ability, resolve, and the gonads to do it.
Notice the equivalent outpouring of public support for the Iranian civilians being massacred by their government, the same as we saw condemning Israel for its 'genocide' against Hamas. So principled. Look at all the university encampments championing the human rights of the Iranian victims. Note the classroom disruptions of Islamic Studies about Shia and Sunni sects, the loud call for divestment of those who do business with the Shia regime or those who fail to boycott its allies, the marches held by women demanding if no justice for their Iranian sisters, then no peace. This response isn't Islamophobic, of course; it's virtuously just a criticism of Iran's current government and its willingness to kill and murder its own future in the name of protecting its religious colonizing apartheid past. In fact, thousands are taking to the streets across the west waving Iranian flags and calling for death to the Mullahs because they're on the right side of history, donchaknow. Parliament will vote to recognize only the anti-clerical Iranian people and take this to the UN that is busy with lawyers assembling human rights cases against the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard machine gunning mosque congregants and publicly naming the clerics who support it. World outrage is growing...
Oh... wait...
Crickets.
But the treatment of Israel isn't anti-Semitic, of course. No, no, no. It's just anti-Zionist. Highly principled, in fact. Not a speck of Jew hatred in sight.
Hypocrisy, thy name is 'progressive'.
One key difference with the watermelon crowd: all evidence points to an actual democide of the Iranian people, where none has happened in Gaza (this does not negate the horrible predicament Palestinians find themselves in, but genocide it is not).
And if we are to consider Hamas "palestinian" in any way, then it is entirely self-inflicted.
But I would be more inclined to paint Hamas as an occupying force in Palestine, much like Persians are describing the IR as the same.
The analogy is imperfect as you rightly point out; it's the absence of domestic public concern for the Iranian tragedy that reveals the breathtaking scope of the moral hypocrisy hard at work against Jews by those who would never dream they were deeply anti-Semitic in spite of such an obvious discrepancy in their behaviour and lack of a working moral compass. Too virtuous to have one, I guess, and too cowardly and craven to start having one that works on moral principle now.
100% agreed. The silence of the woke on the Iranian revolution is deafening.
The X memes calling it out have been hilarious! Greta took a figurative beating.
Couldn't find a boat, no doubt, or anyone to sail it who immediately wouldn't be labelled an Islamophobe for daring to criticize the regime.
Not all progressives, mind you, but I agree with you that the silence on the Iranian situation from the larger left of the political spectrum is both appaling and obviously hypocritical.
There are, as I noted, some left-of-centre commentators cheering for the end of the Islamists hold on Iran, if more quietly than their right-of-centre counterparts.
The US doing anything in Iran would be utterly stupid... especially in light of what its government is doing at home. US foreign policy has been devoid of thought, going back to Afghanistan. "Let's drop bombs and then figure out what our goals are" has. The two regimes aren't as far apart as I think we'd like them to be. The US regime isn't exactly stable or popular either. Any US action is just a distraction from Epstein, and there are no lengths Trump won't go to attempting to keep that genie in the bottle.
Great article.
A very solidly argued, enjoyable read.
I pray that, within my lifetime, the people of Iran and Cuba will again be free.
The desired effect is simply to tip the scales to give the voice back to the majority. Disrupt the regimes communication and propaganda network then add small arms and some training. If this doesn't work the resistance probably wasn't in the majority anyway. Seems like pretty standard CIA operating procedure to me.
It has been reported that over the last few days large currency flows are leaving Iran seeking a safer domain. The powerful & connected are realizing it is a sinking ship and are seeking a Plan B.
Until the military, particularily the IRCG, determines it is in their own best interest to switch sides there will be no regime change but things can happen very quickly - just look at Venezuela.
Nothing has changed in Venezuala - the regime did not fall; Maduro's VP took over from the dictatorial president, who is 'currently vacationing in a US detention facility'.
I'd say it's even odds that Maduro is either convicted or acquited on the charges levied against him, and I'd bet on acquital on a technicality or two (such as being kidnapped) and that Maduro will end up retiring somewhere nice and not near Venezuala or the USA, courtesy of the American taxpayer (funded by all of Trump's oil revenues from Venezuala, presumably).
For the people of Venezuala, at least at the moment, it's sadly life as it was before Maduro was whisked away.
Regime people and close associate already live in the West especially Canada and have been for years.
Here's hoping that our gov hunts them down and deports them back to Iran. We should want nothing to do with them.
There has been no regime change in Venezuela; the acting President is literally a member of the regime.
Will the US spark a war if it will raise the price of gasoline at the pump?