LIVE NOW: On The Line with Gregory Jack on what the hell happened on Monday
And to ponder, with some dread, what's going to happen next.
Hello, friends. We’re splitting On The Line’s releases into audio and video. Videos are now in the late afternoon/evenings, and you can check ‘em out in all our usual places. (Audio options can all be found here, as ever.) In this episode, Matt Gurney is joined by Gregory Jack, senior-vice president of public affairs at Ipsos Canada, as they do their best to unpack what the hell just happened on Monday night. And what might happen next.
In the first half, they go tactical. Matt and Greg walk through the horse race numbers — who’s up, who’s down, and who pulled off a surprise. The Conservatives outperformed their polling numbers. The left-wing vote largely consolidated around the Liberals. And a few party leaders lost their seats in results that caught even close observers off guard. Greg brings the data. Matt brings the questions. Together they sketch out what actually happened on election night.
In the second half, they zoom out to a strategic overview. What does this election really mean? For the NDP, the road ahead is murky: do they rebuild slowly or try to bounce back fast by rolling the dice with an election ASAP? For the Conservatives, it’s an open question whether they’ll work with the Liberal minority — or move straight into siege mode. And for Mark Carney, the real challenge is just beginning. He has a minority government strong enough to last a while, but too fragile to do anything big or bold. Matt and Greg agree: this isn’t the worst-case scenario, but it’s pretty close. Canada remains stuck in political drift — and that drift could last a long time yet.
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Disappointed, but not surprised by the outcome. We desperately need a strong government with a strong mandate. As was pointed out here, we didn’t get that. We did get some things: like Poilievre being gracious in defeat but promising to hold the Government to account; this belieing the ridiculous opinion that he was ever like Trump. I loved that the ballots were counted by hand and objectively scrutinized (no computer counts to blame). I love that the Elections Canada doesn’t gather demographic information (sorry Gregory Jack). I’m sure there are other ways to extrapolate this information, but that’s not Election Canada’s job, nor should it ever be. From an administration point of view it was a well run election. As was also pointed out here, we are going to get a chance to see if the problem with the old Government was only Mr. Trudeau. Great podcast.
Thanks for the bleary-eyed hosting, Matt. (And thank you Jen - caught your Aussie outreach as well.)
You asked - What just happened?
Pierre Poilievre lost this election on tone. He deserved a fair hearing given his overall message was not that different from the Liberals, but the LOUD NOISES from south of the 49th were in a similar key to his message, and it simply scared juuust enough easily frightened people away.
When folks in the Atlantic and in Quebec had alternatives they were used to giving them the type of representation they expect, they stayed with those comfortable options (with a few exceptions - some Bloc MPs certainly lost due to fear of Trump).
When Canadian public sector workers (and their family and friends) saw the DOGE carnage enacted by Messrs. Trump and Musk, they wanted to elect someone who they believed would not replicate that - even if that meant changing their vote from NDP to Liberal in a few cases. Hence the wholesale Liberal sweep in the Ottawa area, including Carleton.
In contrast, the Ontario auto sector ridings (Windsor in particular, but also Ingersoll, Oshawa - forgive me if I have missed others), even though they are likely going to be hardest hit by the current scope of the US tariffs, voted for the Conservatives. They have seen Liberal promises of EV battery manufacturing dry up, and it would appear they are looking for support for blue collar workers that does not have the social justice flavour offered by the NDP.
Here in Alberta, it was never going to be easy to shift enough voters away from the Conservatives... and guess what, it wasn't. However, If Mr. Carney shows Albertans he is who he now says he is between now and the next election, and his actions prove he is neither Trudeau 3.0 nor meant what he wrote in his book Value(s), he will win more seats here next time (and interior BC, and maaaybe even in SK).