Disappointed, but not surprised by the outcome. We desperately need a strong government with a strong mandate. As was pointed out here, we didn’t get that. We did get some things: like Poilievre being gracious in defeat but promising to hold the Government to account; this belieing the ridiculous opinion that he was ever like Trump. I loved that the ballots were counted by hand and objectively scrutinized (no computer counts to blame). I love that the Elections Canada doesn’t gather demographic information (sorry Gregory Jack). I’m sure there are other ways to extrapolate this information, but that’s not Election Canada’s job, nor should it ever be. From an administration point of view it was a well run election. As was also pointed out here, we are going to get a chance to see if the problem with the old Government was only Mr. Trudeau. Great podcast.
Thanks for the bleary-eyed hosting, Matt. (And thank you Jen - caught your Aussie outreach as well.)
You asked - What just happened?
Pierre Poilievre lost this election on tone. He deserved a fair hearing given his overall message was not that different from the Liberals, but the LOUD NOISES from south of the 49th were in a similar key to his message, and it simply scared juuust enough easily frightened people away.
When folks in the Atlantic and in Quebec had alternatives they were used to giving them the type of representation they expect, they stayed with those comfortable options (with a few exceptions - some Bloc MPs certainly lost due to fear of Trump).
When Canadian public sector workers (and their family and friends) saw the DOGE carnage enacted by Messrs. Trump and Musk, they wanted to elect someone who they believed would not replicate that - even if that meant changing their vote from NDP to Liberal in a few cases. Hence the wholesale Liberal sweep in the Ottawa area, including Carleton.
In contrast, the Ontario auto sector ridings (Windsor in particular, but also Ingersoll, Oshawa - forgive me if I have missed others), even though they are likely going to be hardest hit by the current scope of the US tariffs, voted for the Conservatives. They have seen Liberal promises of EV battery manufacturing dry up, and it would appear they are looking for support for blue collar workers that does not have the social justice flavour offered by the NDP.
Here in Alberta, it was never going to be easy to shift enough voters away from the Conservatives... and guess what, it wasn't. However, If Mr. Carney shows Albertans he is who he now says he is between now and the next election, and his actions prove he is neither Trudeau 3.0 nor meant what he wrote in his book Value(s), he will win more seats here next time (and interior BC, and maaaybe even in SK).
To be nerdy- statsy - channeling Jenn from the Meadhito election night - saying Poilievre got 1m votes than Ford is true and misleading as the turnouts were so different (5M in provincial and 7.6m in Federal). What is true is Poilievre got a higher vote share 43.8% compared to 43%. This still means Jenni Byrne bests Kory Teneycke, but feels like more on a split decision
Disappointed, but not surprised by the outcome. We desperately need a strong government with a strong mandate. As was pointed out here, we didn’t get that. We did get some things: like Poilievre being gracious in defeat but promising to hold the Government to account; this belieing the ridiculous opinion that he was ever like Trump. I loved that the ballots were counted by hand and objectively scrutinized (no computer counts to blame). I love that the Elections Canada doesn’t gather demographic information (sorry Gregory Jack). I’m sure there are other ways to extrapolate this information, but that’s not Election Canada’s job, nor should it ever be. From an administration point of view it was a well run election. As was also pointed out here, we are going to get a chance to see if the problem with the old Government was only Mr. Trudeau. Great podcast.
Thanks for the bleary-eyed hosting, Matt. (And thank you Jen - caught your Aussie outreach as well.)
You asked - What just happened?
Pierre Poilievre lost this election on tone. He deserved a fair hearing given his overall message was not that different from the Liberals, but the LOUD NOISES from south of the 49th were in a similar key to his message, and it simply scared juuust enough easily frightened people away.
When folks in the Atlantic and in Quebec had alternatives they were used to giving them the type of representation they expect, they stayed with those comfortable options (with a few exceptions - some Bloc MPs certainly lost due to fear of Trump).
When Canadian public sector workers (and their family and friends) saw the DOGE carnage enacted by Messrs. Trump and Musk, they wanted to elect someone who they believed would not replicate that - even if that meant changing their vote from NDP to Liberal in a few cases. Hence the wholesale Liberal sweep in the Ottawa area, including Carleton.
In contrast, the Ontario auto sector ridings (Windsor in particular, but also Ingersoll, Oshawa - forgive me if I have missed others), even though they are likely going to be hardest hit by the current scope of the US tariffs, voted for the Conservatives. They have seen Liberal promises of EV battery manufacturing dry up, and it would appear they are looking for support for blue collar workers that does not have the social justice flavour offered by the NDP.
Here in Alberta, it was never going to be easy to shift enough voters away from the Conservatives... and guess what, it wasn't. However, If Mr. Carney shows Albertans he is who he now says he is between now and the next election, and his actions prove he is neither Trudeau 3.0 nor meant what he wrote in his book Value(s), he will win more seats here next time (and interior BC, and maaaybe even in SK).
To be nerdy- statsy - channeling Jenn from the Meadhito election night - saying Poilievre got 1m votes than Ford is true and misleading as the turnouts were so different (5M in provincial and 7.6m in Federal). What is true is Poilievre got a higher vote share 43.8% compared to 43%. This still means Jenni Byrne bests Kory Teneycke, but feels like more on a split decision