Great column, Matt … Realpolitik indeed! I think the future is ‘unknown and unknowable’ but at least there is a crack of daylight available for the Iranian people that wasn’t there on Friday…
I certainly won't mourn Khamenei's death, nor that of his regime if it does fall. Let's just hope that the aftermath is a wee bit cleaner than Libya or Syria's. You'd also think that there's a bunch of countries with Russian supplied air defenses that are really regretting their purchases, and that Putin is not having a nice weekend.
Matt, your analysis is quite credible and historically speaking, very well-founded.
You did write something, though, that caused my eyebrows to crawl up towards my hairline:
QUOTE
We also all know, or should, that there is tremendous opportunity here for the people of Iran to seize for themselves the future they so richly deserve, and leave the world a better place for it...
END QUOTE
A number of UK-based commentators have questioned this very notion (that the people of Iran can seize power for themselves in this context).
I think that this is unlikely in the near term, for no matter how much ordnance is rained down from the air upon critical Iranian infrastructure, the consensus would appear to be that elements of the regime would persist. Moreover, there appears to be no "alternative government" or credible resistance movement waiting in the wings.
This suggests that the outcome of the war, beyond the killing of top officials like the Ayatollah Khamenei, will be a vexed and fractious conflict lasting months, if not years, and featuring clashes between competing regime factions more focused on killing each other than on seeing to the welfare of the Iranian people.
*** I hope I'm wrong. ***
But those who believe in a quick and effective popular uprising in Iran seem to be ignoring many important realities about the country.
About 80% of Iranians hate the regime and are behind Pahlavi's government in waiting. Yes, there are many hurdles ahead, but never discount the power of an angry populace yearning for change.
I'm not so sure about Pahlavi having much support within Iran. He might be popular outside it, but there's a lot of suspicion of him just the same. The Hub had a podcast a few weeks back with Kaveh Shahrooz and he expressed a lot of concern with Pahlavi's efforts to suppress any other groups from gaining attention. I think this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgf2d8gsy70
This was published the day before the attacks, and is a very interesting read on regime insiders: https://archive.is/XPfj5
It will definitely be more difficult with the IRGC and proxy militias still (somewhat) intact and armed to the teeth while the civilian population has no natural leadership ready after the barbarous takedown and butcher of the protesters that began their latest fight over two months ago. There will be different factions trying to rise up from the vacuum in leadership including the Reza Pahlavi but that could end up being an internal skirmish that may take years to settle much like past adventures in regime change like Libya et al.
Commentators like the Financial Times’ Gideon Rachman, Emile Hokayem of the ISS and Sanam Vakil, Middle East director at Chatham House, have all raised what I believe to have been compelling doubts about the likelihood of an immediate regime change.
They have also underscored the difficulty of regime change in the absence of organized and well-established opposition groups.
China, Russia and Iran recently signed a trilateral strategic charter. China was finalizing a deal to supply Iran CM-302 low flying, supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles which would give a ship’s (ie aircraft carrier) defensive systems seconds to react instead of minutes. This could raise the risk to the U.S. navy significantly.
Also Russia signed an air defense deal with Iran in December for 500 advanced man portable air defence launch systems and 2,500 missiles. Delivery scheduled 2027 through 2029.
These weapons had potential to change the outcome.
Waiting for the announcement that Canadian troops will transition from
C7s to China’s infantry standard weapon(QBZ191). For strategic commonality of course.
Of course it’ll take about 30 or more years to allow for setting up a factory in Quebec and translating operating and maintenance manuals to French and English. 🙄
Whenever we ask why Trump did something, there's always the possibility of something trite, or stupid, or impulsive or all three. In terms of US strategic interests, however, it may not be a coincidence that the US has now gone after another (after Venezuela) big supplier of discounted oil to China.
It's completely surprising that no mention of the Iran's relationships with Russia and China was made, when the fall of this regime will likely affect the balance of power long term.
If one thinks of the long term consequences of these actions and specifically how it affects China, it makes a lot more sense.
Don't forget that China has a demographic bomb on its hands and that it may prove to be more of a paper tiger than we think.
There is definitely a connection. My thoughts are that Iran was far closer to the bomb than we realized. That would explain why the rest of the Middle East had thrown their support so clearly behind the US.
And never any mention of what he should pivot to. 16 months of shaking my head and thinking Poilievre is on the right track: ignore Trump as much as possible and focus on fixing Canada. I don't really see much difference between the latest speech and his speech of March 1, 2025 - the one that unfortunately mentioned "biological clock".
Great column Mat. I had never thought about the comparison you draw between Pearl Harbour and Oct. 7...but it should have been obvious. The Iranians have been poking the western Bears for decades...about bloody time, that the reality of what they were doing was spelled out in pretty devastating terms.
One thing I’m curious about is whether Canada sees a dramatic decrease in the number and size of the Palestinian protests that have occurred over the past few years. They were too well planned and strategic for me to believe it was a ground swell movement. We may find out that it was Iranian regime money that was behind a lot of it.
Is there a China angle to this action? The US seems to be systematically weakening China's allies: Russia, Cuba, Venezuela and now Iran. This could be a demonstration of America's still unparalleled technological, military, economic and even diplomatic supremecy. China would might be able to lead on one or two of those fronts, but not all four. It could also be an attempt to slow China's natural resource grab. The Americans merely need to slow China's military and economic ascent long enough until aging demographics and American digital imperialism eat away at the CCP.
I wouldn't be surprised if Israeli and American military action targets Iran's drone supply chain. This would be a blow to Russia.
Of course all of this 3D chess could go very wrong.
There is indeed a China angle, and I am wondering how Carney is going to navigate this, now that China is his new best friend AND he's given a statement in support of Israeli and American actions.
“It is interesting that the Americans have not actually declared War on Iran. But they most likely don't want to or must. However, bombs and military steel take no notice of those impediments to total war. This will be a conflict under the heading of "A Blockade" – aka to lay siege - which have been used throughout history as a military strategy to prevent an enemy from receiving supplies, or in this case exporting supplies as well, thereby weakening their ability to fight. In this case the export of oil will further cripple the finances of Iran. There are land routes for oil to be exported from Iran, and the American navy is powerful to police the sea routes and the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic chokepoint for seaborne oil that Iran has long used as a geopolitical bargaining chip, with Tehran repeatedly threatening to close it during times of crisis. But can America block the land routes? There will be no "boots on the ground" from the Americans and the success or failure of this venture will depend on how American diplomacy can hold their friends and repel their enemies until the fog of war clears and there is "regime change" in Iran. What the next regime to rise will be is the burning question and will require billions and billions of Western dollars to achieve. Israel will be happy at these events and fearful of what comes regime comes next. Trump and his administration will get little recognition in the mainstream media, and no doubt the NEWS outlets headed by CNN will begin their usual attack of the POTUS and his strong and necessary action America has taken to begin the dismantling of the Iranian Satan that has stood astride the middle east like a dreadful colossus, a monster that their regime has become with it's avowed mission to annihilate Israel and finance terrorism, death and destruction through its multiple portals aka Hamas, Hezbollah. the al-Quds Brigades, al-Qaeda, Boko Haram and the list goes on, all financed partially or wholly by Iran.”
Great column, Matt … Realpolitik indeed! I think the future is ‘unknown and unknowable’ but at least there is a crack of daylight available for the Iranian people that wasn’t there on Friday…
I certainly won't mourn Khamenei's death, nor that of his regime if it does fall. Let's just hope that the aftermath is a wee bit cleaner than Libya or Syria's. You'd also think that there's a bunch of countries with Russian supplied air defenses that are really regretting their purchases, and that Putin is not having a nice weekend.
Matt, your analysis is quite credible and historically speaking, very well-founded.
You did write something, though, that caused my eyebrows to crawl up towards my hairline:
QUOTE
We also all know, or should, that there is tremendous opportunity here for the people of Iran to seize for themselves the future they so richly deserve, and leave the world a better place for it...
END QUOTE
A number of UK-based commentators have questioned this very notion (that the people of Iran can seize power for themselves in this context).
I think that this is unlikely in the near term, for no matter how much ordnance is rained down from the air upon critical Iranian infrastructure, the consensus would appear to be that elements of the regime would persist. Moreover, there appears to be no "alternative government" or credible resistance movement waiting in the wings.
This suggests that the outcome of the war, beyond the killing of top officials like the Ayatollah Khamenei, will be a vexed and fractious conflict lasting months, if not years, and featuring clashes between competing regime factions more focused on killing each other than on seeing to the welfare of the Iranian people.
*** I hope I'm wrong. ***
But those who believe in a quick and effective popular uprising in Iran seem to be ignoring many important realities about the country.
About 80% of Iranians hate the regime and are behind Pahlavi's government in waiting. Yes, there are many hurdles ahead, but never discount the power of an angry populace yearning for change.
I'm not so sure about Pahlavi having much support within Iran. He might be popular outside it, but there's a lot of suspicion of him just the same. The Hub had a podcast a few weeks back with Kaveh Shahrooz and he expressed a lot of concern with Pahlavi's efforts to suppress any other groups from gaining attention. I think this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgf2d8gsy70
This was published the day before the attacks, and is a very interesting read on regime insiders: https://archive.is/XPfj5
Like the power of the majority of Canadians who hate the Trudeau/Carney regime?
Sadly Polievre is no Pahlavi.
It will definitely be more difficult with the IRGC and proxy militias still (somewhat) intact and armed to the teeth while the civilian population has no natural leadership ready after the barbarous takedown and butcher of the protesters that began their latest fight over two months ago. There will be different factions trying to rise up from the vacuum in leadership including the Reza Pahlavi but that could end up being an internal skirmish that may take years to settle much like past adventures in regime change like Libya et al.
Precisely this. Thank you.
After the END QUOTE, total MISREAD.
Commentators like the Financial Times’ Gideon Rachman, Emile Hokayem of the ISS and Sanam Vakil, Middle East director at Chatham House, have all raised what I believe to have been compelling doubts about the likelihood of an immediate regime change.
They have also underscored the difficulty of regime change in the absence of organized and well-established opposition groups.
On the question of "Why now?":
China, Russia and Iran recently signed a trilateral strategic charter. China was finalizing a deal to supply Iran CM-302 low flying, supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles which would give a ship’s (ie aircraft carrier) defensive systems seconds to react instead of minutes. This could raise the risk to the U.S. navy significantly.
Also Russia signed an air defense deal with Iran in December for 500 advanced man portable air defence launch systems and 2,500 missiles. Delivery scheduled 2027 through 2029.
These weapons had potential to change the outcome.
https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/2026/02/27/iran-turned-to-russia-china-for-missiles-after-12-day-war/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Would that be the same China that our PM has just signed strategic agreements with???
The same China that is building troop carriers, I mean ferries for BC.
Waiting for the announcement that Canadian troops will transition from
C7s to China’s infantry standard weapon(QBZ191). For strategic commonality of course.
Of course it’ll take about 30 or more years to allow for setting up a factory in Quebec and translating operating and maintenance manuals to French and English. 🙄
There zre idle vaccine plants available in Laval ($180M) and Quebec City ($283M).
Would be a good start I guess. Wonder what it would cost to convert them to produce rifles and maybe ammo?
Whenever we ask why Trump did something, there's always the possibility of something trite, or stupid, or impulsive or all three. In terms of US strategic interests, however, it may not be a coincidence that the US has now gone after another (after Venezuela) big supplier of discounted oil to China.
It's completely surprising that no mention of the Iran's relationships with Russia and China was made, when the fall of this regime will likely affect the balance of power long term.
If one thinks of the long term consequences of these actions and specifically how it affects China, it makes a lot more sense.
Don't forget that China has a demographic bomb on its hands and that it may prove to be more of a paper tiger than we think.
There is definitely a connection. My thoughts are that Iran was far closer to the bomb than we realized. That would explain why the rest of the Middle East had thrown their support so clearly behind the US.
Great article! This is how I remember The Line, not the constant criticism of Alberta separation, Smith and Poilievre.
Jerry, you make a great point.
If I had to read one more time about the lack of a Poilievre Pivot, I was going to lick a metal fence post and stay there until spring.
And never any mention of what he should pivot to. 16 months of shaking my head and thinking Poilievre is on the right track: ignore Trump as much as possible and focus on fixing Canada. I don't really see much difference between the latest speech and his speech of March 1, 2025 - the one that unfortunately mentioned "biological clock".
Great column Mat. I had never thought about the comparison you draw between Pearl Harbour and Oct. 7...but it should have been obvious. The Iranians have been poking the western Bears for decades...about bloody time, that the reality of what they were doing was spelled out in pretty devastating terms.
FAFO!
Well thought out and written piece Matt
One thing I’m curious about is whether Canada sees a dramatic decrease in the number and size of the Palestinian protests that have occurred over the past few years. They were too well planned and strategic for me to believe it was a ground swell movement. We may find out that it was Iranian regime money that was behind a lot of it.
👏👏👏 🎯 🎯 🎯
Is there a China angle to this action? The US seems to be systematically weakening China's allies: Russia, Cuba, Venezuela and now Iran. This could be a demonstration of America's still unparalleled technological, military, economic and even diplomatic supremecy. China would might be able to lead on one or two of those fronts, but not all four. It could also be an attempt to slow China's natural resource grab. The Americans merely need to slow China's military and economic ascent long enough until aging demographics and American digital imperialism eat away at the CCP.
I wouldn't be surprised if Israeli and American military action targets Iran's drone supply chain. This would be a blow to Russia.
Of course all of this 3D chess could go very wrong.
There is indeed a China angle, and I am wondering how Carney is going to navigate this, now that China is his new best friend AND he's given a statement in support of Israeli and American actions.
Fantastic column. So clear and concise!
Excellent article.
Great informative article!!
“It is interesting that the Americans have not actually declared War on Iran. But they most likely don't want to or must. However, bombs and military steel take no notice of those impediments to total war. This will be a conflict under the heading of "A Blockade" – aka to lay siege - which have been used throughout history as a military strategy to prevent an enemy from receiving supplies, or in this case exporting supplies as well, thereby weakening their ability to fight. In this case the export of oil will further cripple the finances of Iran. There are land routes for oil to be exported from Iran, and the American navy is powerful to police the sea routes and the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic chokepoint for seaborne oil that Iran has long used as a geopolitical bargaining chip, with Tehran repeatedly threatening to close it during times of crisis. But can America block the land routes? There will be no "boots on the ground" from the Americans and the success or failure of this venture will depend on how American diplomacy can hold their friends and repel their enemies until the fog of war clears and there is "regime change" in Iran. What the next regime to rise will be is the burning question and will require billions and billions of Western dollars to achieve. Israel will be happy at these events and fearful of what comes regime comes next. Trump and his administration will get little recognition in the mainstream media, and no doubt the NEWS outlets headed by CNN will begin their usual attack of the POTUS and his strong and necessary action America has taken to begin the dismantling of the Iranian Satan that has stood astride the middle east like a dreadful colossus, a monster that their regime has become with it's avowed mission to annihilate Israel and finance terrorism, death and destruction through its multiple portals aka Hamas, Hezbollah. the al-Quds Brigades, al-Qaeda, Boko Haram and the list goes on, all financed partially or wholly by Iran.”
Not sure if this is a nicer way of saying "I hope he had time to suffer", but that's how I'm taking it, and I approve.
Best commentary I have read on this, so far.