Driving through a small Ontario town yesterday, I saw this on a church sign: "If there is no God over government, then government is god."
I think this illustrates the conundrum is at the centre of the PPC surge: a desire to believe in authority (ie. God, but not necessarily God), but very skeptical about how it should work out by participation in our democratic system (ie. government).
The result is trying to promote the desire to lift up the freedom of the individual but no plan to support or build up the freedom of the community. We can't have one without sacrificing aspects of the other.
So, yeah, I think the PPC can't really go anywhere if it can't figure out how to govern.
Fortunately, there is a really really simple solution to this "problem to social stability" - just let people choose whether or not to get vaccinated/boosted. Stop trying to force them.
You keep beating on this drum, but here's the thing: your individual acceptance of risk doesn't extend to forcing others to accept that risk. If everybody who wants a vaccine can get a vaccine, and the numbers of COVID cases isn't overwhelming the health care system, fill your boots. Until then, you either get vaccinated or accept restrictions on your activities that will limit the spread of COVID. I know you'll argue ad nauseum about whether there's really a risk, or whether the restrictions are acceptable, but you're distinctly in the minority on this and decidedly on the wrong side of informed opinion.
I'd be ok with that if those people signed a pledge not to go to a hospital if they contract Covid. Why should the exhausted medical community (and everyone else who is overdue for usual medical treatments) have to pay the price for the foolishness of these people?
Maybe for the same reason that we treat smokers for lung cancer, criminals for injuries incurred during the course of committing a crime, skiers for broken bones, and people who are overweight and/or don't exercise for a whole host of ailments?
That's not a good comparison. Firstly, none of those are contagious. As well, surgeries are not being cancelled because skateboarders with "self inflicted" injuries are swamping ICUs. What is happening to the south of us is horrific. Idaho is shipping people to Washington hospitals because their own are filled with unvaxxed Covid cases. Other states are in a similar jam. The health-care people do not deserve this. Close to 4000 US health-care workers have died during this pandemic and people are scared of a proven vaccine? Wow!
Matt, I take exception to the claim we are against immigration, as you say. The platform is pretty clear that we are for sustainable immigration with a focus on economic immigrants.
But I think a lot of what the PPC stands for gets muddied when regurgitated by the media, maliciously or not. I'm a professional that leans right - certainly of the classical liberal mindset - and I supported Bernier in his Conservative leadership run. When he lost because of Scheer's very obvious buy-out by the dairy lobby, it was clear the conservatives were no longer an option for me.
Most media seems to view Max as just butt-hurt, but his history shows him to be very principled and un-wavering in his policy proposals from when he ran for the leadership, which are not much different from the original Reform Party platform. And he wasn't wrong when he labelled todays conservative party morally and intellectually corrupt.
The PPC's mantra of Freedom, Responsibility, Fairness, and Respect are not just what I want to hear from those looking to govern, these should be what any Western government's first principles ought to be.
Is this surge due to folks who've read the PPC platform and signed on to it. Or has the PPC become noticed (ex., on digital media) as the place to gather politically if you are anti-vaccines, anti-vaccine passports, anti-lockdowns, etc.
So while Nick, you may be an ardent PPC/Bernier follower (since his run for the CPC leadership) and may indeed have signed on to the PPC platform, can the same be said for that 6%.
Are they dedicated PPC followers for the long haul or simply pandemic tourists?
For most of 2020 the PPC is running below 2% and only breaks 3% at the end of July 2021, hitting 4% at the end of August, and now 6% mid-September. The likely explanation in the surge from 2% to 6% over the last 2 months is talk of vaccine passports and the potential consequence of being shut out of 'normal' activities. And that would suggest that 4% of that 6% are vaccine passport tourists, rather than staunch Bernier libertarians.
Thus my expectation, unless the pandemic persists indefinitely, or something dramatic happens within the pandemic context (ex., high levels of vigilante violence against businesses, hospitals, government buildings, etc., à la Jan 6 in the U.S.), those 4% will fade back into the background noise of society.
From me? Straight into the ad hominem? We? Whose we? What a load of self righteous tripe. I didn’t vote PPC so you can stuff your accusations - but from where I sit, this self righteous condescension exemplified by your comment is a lot more disgusting than COVID.
What’s your deal? Are you blind? Let me spell this out again, I didn’t vote PPC and I’m vaccinated. Again, your accusations are baseless and ignorant. Just about everyone?? Did you read the column?
You really need to learn how to discuss things without accusations.
ad hominem
adj. Attacking a person's character or motivations rather than a position or argument.
adj. Appealing to the emotions rather than to logic or reason.
My guess? The PPC fades with the pandemic, back into the population as background noise of largely ineffectual political attitudes.
No longer part of any organized political agenda, it will survive where low grade discontent always has in bars and around water coolers as cynical and skeptical attitudes of people who otherwise don't act politically. The sharper disruption of the pandemic against the broader dislocations accelerated by globalization will likely morph into agendas which, if they have any political traction, will be safely absorbed by more mainstream parties.
My bold prediction! Folks who blockade hospital entrances will never form government in Canada where socialized medicine is as near as sacred gets to politics.
Hey Robert. This is something we're going to look at. I agree with you that this will happen in many cases. I'm wondering how "sticky" the PPC proves for its new arrivals. Gonna be a awhile before we can say but that's something that's very much on our radar.
Just another note which may be relevant to understanding context and the potential significance of that 6%.
I'm old enough to have lived through what was called the October Crisis in 1970, the occasion for what may be Justin's dad's most famous remark when responding to how far he would go when pressed by a reporter about his putting troops in the street: "Just watch me".
The government's putting troops in the street in Ottawa and Quebec and rounding up and jailing Quebecois activists using the War Measures Act was Trudeau the elder's response to a murdered Quebec minister and a kidnapped British diplomat, by the FLQ. Keep in mind there had been a history of bombings leading up to that point during a volatile time around the world.
Nevertheless, if things heat up in Canada based upon reactions to pandemic passports and closing venues to unvaccinated people who deeply resent such restrictions and choose to mimic what happened in the U.S. on January 6, then not unlike during the October Crisis, governments in Canada will need to assess the appropriate response.
We are certainly not there yet. But if protesting around hospitals seems a tad unhinged already and turns violent or seriously threatens the well-being of those seeking medical attention, the fundamental democratic principle of the rule of law will likely become a priority in a way we have not yet seen.
All it would take is one or two serious reckless acts, things escalate, digital media mobs become even more unhinged. And we could be there, once again. Or worse.
The biggest concern at the moment that I have, is how unprepared (and at times reckless) governments appear to be at each stage of the evolving pandemic. As I am writing, Kenny just said 'oops, sorry' for his big Calgary Stampede reopening back in July to so much celebratory fanfare at the time, and now he's announcing a whole new level of emergency pandemic response. Little wonder then if members of the public become exasperated.
Lockdowns with masks were one thing. Front line service workers functioning as pandemic bouncers restricting access to the angry, resentful, evermore desperate few while the many vaccinated folks slide on through and return to 'normal', could be a whole new kettle of smelly dead fish.
Unpredictable meets reckless. The movie you don't want to see, never mind find your self in.
Yes, can the PPC hang on to its new 'visitors'? Is the pandemic going to create a generation of Bernier libertarians? Can Bernier carve out a solid flank opposed to the broad consensus to his left, which now includes the CPC courting labour with O'Toole-style socialism?
The Bloc's 6% is sufficiently concentrated in PQ to get a serious batch of seats. Spread thin across the country, the PPC's 6% may draw a complete blank. Tough to grow that inside the political arena. All the more reason why external events outside that political arena may be essential to Bernier's PPC.
Just to add. It doesn't mean the crazies can't get crazier. While the pandemic rolls on, and as doors close, literally, on the unvaccinated, more digitally-mediated, 'spontaneous' violence may occur. Canada may have to invest in a rapid response to deal with it. There will need to be political consensus on what that is, ex., re law enforcement. I don't think it's inappropriate to consider it as a quasi-wartime footing with the shift in freedom vs restrictions that occurs when democracies go to war.
I wish someone would notice there was a spike in support after the PPC released a statement regarding their position on gender ideology. Your original report on the PPC supporters said there were more men than women. But now you've noted the genders are on par. Isn't anyone curious why women are looking favourably on these guys?
I'm not confident that women have MOVED to the PCC so much that the original survey undercounted women. But I can't be confident in the opposite, either.
I'm 68 years in Canada and support the PPC for this election and the last. I've never supported any party in any election with cash until now. I support the PPC for many reasons one being im worried about the erosion of civil rights in Canada. I Feel Max is the only one speaking the truth. Too much bull sh*t from most of the others. Yes I know the PPC can't win this election but change is comming and needed.
I think we have seen the issue pretty clearly. Lots of people just don't want to stop forcing people to get vaccinated/boosted. But who is really the threat to social stability? The ones who want to exercise their right to choose or those who want to force medical treatment on others?
...his book on whether "Trump could happen here". It leverages polling going back 30 years, and follows up on his "Fire and Ice" (2003) book about how Canadian and American values were diverging even before 9/11.
All the 'shocking' opinions they hold are what you'd expect of the feudalism-was-good-enough-for-grandpa subculture that proved to be large enough in the States to elect Trump, who also hauled non-voters out into the light. But we lack his American Evangelical Christians (whom Chris Hedges nailed as ticking off nearly every box for "fascist" in his "American Fascists" book of 2006) means there's no shot at 51% in any Canadian riding. Or 20%.
If the authors just aren't sure they're nearly all white, I would be happy to give 2:1 odds on 90% white, and 3:2 on 95%. Money for the taking, people, step right up.
This is not Alabama; this is where our most-conservative place, rural Alberta, turned on a Wild Rose guy in 2012 who made one remark about gays perishing in a lake of fire, and Wild Rose spiralled down after losing badly. Yes, we started the Proud Boys, but Rebel Media is a small joke web site here. In America, Roger Aisles took in $29M salary, while selling Trump conspiracy theories, and demanding sex from employees, right to the end.
Read Michael Adams. It won't happen here. You will find out how much of Ford Nation actually wanted a fascist, not a conservative, and that may divert Ford to more anti-immigrant, pro-white policies, which will deserve monitoring.
Interesting idea but I've been saying for a while Canada isn't immune to populism. I don¡t think it will play out the same, perhaps minority governments are a result of that. To me the bigger issue is QC vs Trudeau and the rest of the country. How long will two countries be able to stay united, especially when one has vastly different values to the other.
This is interesting stuff, but misses the mark in at least a couple of ways. I'm a disappointed Conservative who has always supported the most libertarian option on the ballot...so the PPC is 'it' for me. I'm not against vaccines...I'm against government mandates and coercively _imposing_ vaccines. In fact, I'm double-vaxxed myself...my age and state of health IN MY JUDGEMENT made accepting the vaccination the best option for me. How it all works out remains to be seen...turns out the vaccine is hardly the panacea it's made out to be.
Also, the immigration thing. The PPC is _not_ 'anti-immigration'. Party policy is that it should be reduced, and more care taken with what immigrants are accepted. Note also that it's a flexible, rather than dogmatic, position. If after a few years one level can be seen not to work, it's easy to adjust. It is _not_ slamming the door.
Driving through a small Ontario town yesterday, I saw this on a church sign: "If there is no God over government, then government is god."
I think this illustrates the conundrum is at the centre of the PPC surge: a desire to believe in authority (ie. God, but not necessarily God), but very skeptical about how it should work out by participation in our democratic system (ie. government).
The result is trying to promote the desire to lift up the freedom of the individual but no plan to support or build up the freedom of the community. We can't have one without sacrificing aspects of the other.
So, yeah, I think the PPC can't really go anywhere if it can't figure out how to govern.
Fortunately, there is a really really simple solution to this "problem to social stability" - just let people choose whether or not to get vaccinated/boosted. Stop trying to force them.
You keep beating on this drum, but here's the thing: your individual acceptance of risk doesn't extend to forcing others to accept that risk. If everybody who wants a vaccine can get a vaccine, and the numbers of COVID cases isn't overwhelming the health care system, fill your boots. Until then, you either get vaccinated or accept restrictions on your activities that will limit the spread of COVID. I know you'll argue ad nauseum about whether there's really a risk, or whether the restrictions are acceptable, but you're distinctly in the minority on this and decidedly on the wrong side of informed opinion.
I'd be ok with that if those people signed a pledge not to go to a hospital if they contract Covid. Why should the exhausted medical community (and everyone else who is overdue for usual medical treatments) have to pay the price for the foolishness of these people?
Maybe for the same reason that we treat smokers for lung cancer, criminals for injuries incurred during the course of committing a crime, skiers for broken bones, and people who are overweight and/or don't exercise for a whole host of ailments?
That's not a good comparison. Firstly, none of those are contagious. As well, surgeries are not being cancelled because skateboarders with "self inflicted" injuries are swamping ICUs. What is happening to the south of us is horrific. Idaho is shipping people to Washington hospitals because their own are filled with unvaxxed Covid cases. Other states are in a similar jam. The health-care people do not deserve this. Close to 4000 US health-care workers have died during this pandemic and people are scared of a proven vaccine? Wow!
Matt, I take exception to the claim we are against immigration, as you say. The platform is pretty clear that we are for sustainable immigration with a focus on economic immigrants.
But I think a lot of what the PPC stands for gets muddied when regurgitated by the media, maliciously or not. I'm a professional that leans right - certainly of the classical liberal mindset - and I supported Bernier in his Conservative leadership run. When he lost because of Scheer's very obvious buy-out by the dairy lobby, it was clear the conservatives were no longer an option for me.
Most media seems to view Max as just butt-hurt, but his history shows him to be very principled and un-wavering in his policy proposals from when he ran for the leadership, which are not much different from the original Reform Party platform. And he wasn't wrong when he labelled todays conservative party morally and intellectually corrupt.
The PPC's mantra of Freedom, Responsibility, Fairness, and Respect are not just what I want to hear from those looking to govern, these should be what any Western government's first principles ought to be.
It strikes me that the issue of the moment is explaining the current surge of the PPC to 6% nationally. (Based on CBC/Eric Grenier's Poll Tracker: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/)
Is this surge due to folks who've read the PPC platform and signed on to it. Or has the PPC become noticed (ex., on digital media) as the place to gather politically if you are anti-vaccines, anti-vaccine passports, anti-lockdowns, etc.
So while Nick, you may be an ardent PPC/Bernier follower (since his run for the CPC leadership) and may indeed have signed on to the PPC platform, can the same be said for that 6%.
Are they dedicated PPC followers for the long haul or simply pandemic tourists?
For most of 2020 the PPC is running below 2% and only breaks 3% at the end of July 2021, hitting 4% at the end of August, and now 6% mid-September. The likely explanation in the surge from 2% to 6% over the last 2 months is talk of vaccine passports and the potential consequence of being shut out of 'normal' activities. And that would suggest that 4% of that 6% are vaccine passport tourists, rather than staunch Bernier libertarians.
Thus my expectation, unless the pandemic persists indefinitely, or something dramatic happens within the pandemic context (ex., high levels of vigilante violence against businesses, hospitals, government buildings, etc., à la Jan 6 in the U.S.), those 4% will fade back into the background noise of society.
Just for reference, here's the PPC platform: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/
And the vaccine tyrants are very poor at the freedom, fairness and respect part.
From me? Straight into the ad hominem? We? Whose we? What a load of self righteous tripe. I didn’t vote PPC so you can stuff your accusations - but from where I sit, this self righteous condescension exemplified by your comment is a lot more disgusting than COVID.
What’s your deal? Are you blind? Let me spell this out again, I didn’t vote PPC and I’m vaccinated. Again, your accusations are baseless and ignorant. Just about everyone?? Did you read the column?
You really need to learn how to discuss things without accusations.
ad hominem
adj. Attacking a person's character or motivations rather than a position or argument.
adj. Appealing to the emotions rather than to logic or reason.
This is exactly what you’re doing.
My guess? The PPC fades with the pandemic, back into the population as background noise of largely ineffectual political attitudes.
No longer part of any organized political agenda, it will survive where low grade discontent always has in bars and around water coolers as cynical and skeptical attitudes of people who otherwise don't act politically. The sharper disruption of the pandemic against the broader dislocations accelerated by globalization will likely morph into agendas which, if they have any political traction, will be safely absorbed by more mainstream parties.
My bold prediction! Folks who blockade hospital entrances will never form government in Canada where socialized medicine is as near as sacred gets to politics.
Hey Robert. This is something we're going to look at. I agree with you that this will happen in many cases. I'm wondering how "sticky" the PPC proves for its new arrivals. Gonna be a awhile before we can say but that's something that's very much on our radar.
Just another note which may be relevant to understanding context and the potential significance of that 6%.
I'm old enough to have lived through what was called the October Crisis in 1970, the occasion for what may be Justin's dad's most famous remark when responding to how far he would go when pressed by a reporter about his putting troops in the street: "Just watch me".
The government's putting troops in the street in Ottawa and Quebec and rounding up and jailing Quebecois activists using the War Measures Act was Trudeau the elder's response to a murdered Quebec minister and a kidnapped British diplomat, by the FLQ. Keep in mind there had been a history of bombings leading up to that point during a volatile time around the world.
Nevertheless, if things heat up in Canada based upon reactions to pandemic passports and closing venues to unvaccinated people who deeply resent such restrictions and choose to mimic what happened in the U.S. on January 6, then not unlike during the October Crisis, governments in Canada will need to assess the appropriate response.
We are certainly not there yet. But if protesting around hospitals seems a tad unhinged already and turns violent or seriously threatens the well-being of those seeking medical attention, the fundamental democratic principle of the rule of law will likely become a priority in a way we have not yet seen.
All it would take is one or two serious reckless acts, things escalate, digital media mobs become even more unhinged. And we could be there, once again. Or worse.
The biggest concern at the moment that I have, is how unprepared (and at times reckless) governments appear to be at each stage of the evolving pandemic. As I am writing, Kenny just said 'oops, sorry' for his big Calgary Stampede reopening back in July to so much celebratory fanfare at the time, and now he's announcing a whole new level of emergency pandemic response. Little wonder then if members of the public become exasperated.
Lockdowns with masks were one thing. Front line service workers functioning as pandemic bouncers restricting access to the angry, resentful, evermore desperate few while the many vaccinated folks slide on through and return to 'normal', could be a whole new kettle of smelly dead fish.
Unpredictable meets reckless. The movie you don't want to see, never mind find your self in.
Yes, can the PPC hang on to its new 'visitors'? Is the pandemic going to create a generation of Bernier libertarians? Can Bernier carve out a solid flank opposed to the broad consensus to his left, which now includes the CPC courting labour with O'Toole-style socialism?
The Bloc's 6% is sufficiently concentrated in PQ to get a serious batch of seats. Spread thin across the country, the PPC's 6% may draw a complete blank. Tough to grow that inside the political arena. All the more reason why external events outside that political arena may be essential to Bernier's PPC.
Just to add. It doesn't mean the crazies can't get crazier. While the pandemic rolls on, and as doors close, literally, on the unvaccinated, more digitally-mediated, 'spontaneous' violence may occur. Canada may have to invest in a rapid response to deal with it. There will need to be political consensus on what that is, ex., re law enforcement. I don't think it's inappropriate to consider it as a quasi-wartime footing with the shift in freedom vs restrictions that occurs when democracies go to war.
I wish someone would notice there was a spike in support after the PPC released a statement regarding their position on gender ideology. Your original report on the PPC supporters said there were more men than women. But now you've noted the genders are on par. Isn't anyone curious why women are looking favourably on these guys?
I'm not confident that women have MOVED to the PCC so much that the original survey undercounted women. But I can't be confident in the opposite, either.
I'm 68 years in Canada and support the PPC for this election and the last. I've never supported any party in any election with cash until now. I support the PPC for many reasons one being im worried about the erosion of civil rights in Canada. I Feel Max is the only one speaking the truth. Too much bull sh*t from most of the others. Yes I know the PPC can't win this election but change is comming and needed.
I think we have seen the issue pretty clearly. Lots of people just don't want to stop forcing people to get vaccinated/boosted. But who is really the threat to social stability? The ones who want to exercise their right to choose or those who want to force medical treatment on others?
Michael Adams of Environics is waaaay ahead of you, guys, with:
https://www.environicsinstitute.org/michael-adams/books/could-it-happen-here/
...his book on whether "Trump could happen here". It leverages polling going back 30 years, and follows up on his "Fire and Ice" (2003) book about how Canadian and American values were diverging even before 9/11.
All the 'shocking' opinions they hold are what you'd expect of the feudalism-was-good-enough-for-grandpa subculture that proved to be large enough in the States to elect Trump, who also hauled non-voters out into the light. But we lack his American Evangelical Christians (whom Chris Hedges nailed as ticking off nearly every box for "fascist" in his "American Fascists" book of 2006) means there's no shot at 51% in any Canadian riding. Or 20%.
If the authors just aren't sure they're nearly all white, I would be happy to give 2:1 odds on 90% white, and 3:2 on 95%. Money for the taking, people, step right up.
This is not Alabama; this is where our most-conservative place, rural Alberta, turned on a Wild Rose guy in 2012 who made one remark about gays perishing in a lake of fire, and Wild Rose spiralled down after losing badly. Yes, we started the Proud Boys, but Rebel Media is a small joke web site here. In America, Roger Aisles took in $29M salary, while selling Trump conspiracy theories, and demanding sex from employees, right to the end.
Read Michael Adams. It won't happen here. You will find out how much of Ford Nation actually wanted a fascist, not a conservative, and that may divert Ford to more anti-immigrant, pro-white policies, which will deserve monitoring.
Interesting idea but I've been saying for a while Canada isn't immune to populism. I don¡t think it will play out the same, perhaps minority governments are a result of that. To me the bigger issue is QC vs Trudeau and the rest of the country. How long will two countries be able to stay united, especially when one has vastly different values to the other.
This is interesting stuff, but misses the mark in at least a couple of ways. I'm a disappointed Conservative who has always supported the most libertarian option on the ballot...so the PPC is 'it' for me. I'm not against vaccines...I'm against government mandates and coercively _imposing_ vaccines. In fact, I'm double-vaxxed myself...my age and state of health IN MY JUDGEMENT made accepting the vaccination the best option for me. How it all works out remains to be seen...turns out the vaccine is hardly the panacea it's made out to be.
Also, the immigration thing. The PPC is _not_ 'anti-immigration'. Party policy is that it should be reduced, and more care taken with what immigrants are accepted. Note also that it's a flexible, rather than dogmatic, position. If after a few years one level can be seen not to work, it's easy to adjust. It is _not_ slamming the door.
What is the sample size for PPC supporters? And what is the MOE?