Matt Gurney: 'We will never fucking trust you again'

Some blunt talk for our American neighbours at the Halifax International Security Forum.

By: Matt Gurney

Late last month, attending the Halifax International Security Forum, I was having the damndest feeling. Can you have déja vu for something that you only experienced via fiction? Because it was kind of like that.

The fiction in question was a novel by an Australian, published during the Second Iraq War. Anti-American sentiment was running rampant all over the world. The premise of the novel is out there in the realm of sci-fi — America disappears. Specifically, Americans disappear — some mysterious wave of energy scours most of North America clean of life. Virtually all of the U.S. is wiped out; most of Canada and Mexico, too. Somewhat to the surprise of the anti-Americans, this does not result in an improvement in life on Planet Earth.

Standing around at the forum, eating the delicious snacks and drinking the good coffee and chatting with friends old and new, that was what I kept thinking about. Where are the Americans? And what the hell are we going to do without them?

And, in case you’re wondering what’s up with that headline, here’s another question — what will we do if they one day try and come back?

The forum is an annual gathering of senior military officers, defence and intelligence officials from across the free world, and representatives from the media, think tanks, large companies and civil society organizations whose work relates to defence and security issues or in some way seeks to promote and preserve a healthy democratic world. Funded by NATO, the Canadian government and private-sector sponsors, the event is a major part of Canada’s “soft power” offering to our allies — we host the big party and show everybody a good time. The actual schedule is split between on-the-record panel talks or presentations, off-the-record sessions, and informal time for mingling and schmoozing. I am grateful to have been invited to participate again this year.

Especially this year. I’ve been going to the forum for years, and the event always had a strongly American flavour.

Not anymore! Yankee went home.

Like, literally. He was ordered to go home, or stay there. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth ordered the Pentagon to avoid a series of high-profile annual defence summits. That includes Halifax, and others in places like Munich and Singapore, and even inside the United States itself. The reason, according to the Pentagon’s press apparatus, was that, and I swear to God this is the actual quote, such events promote “the evil of globalism, disdain for our great country and hatred for the president of the United States.”

Oh. Well, then.

That’s what made the forum so fascinating this year. As I told my colleague Jen Gerson while I was in Halifax, the entire event felt a little bit like the first Thanksgiving after a divorce. It’s great to see everyone, but there’re some notable absences, is the thing.

Let me be clear about one thing: there were indeed a great many Americans at the forum in Halifax. I don’t want to suggest otherwise. There was a large Congressional Delegation, or a “CODEL,” present at the forum, as there is every year. If anything, I think this year had an unusually large CODEL. And it was a bipartisan one, too. But I noticed something interesting. They were all senators. No House reps. I can’t help but suspect that’s because they’re either planning to retire (some have said already they will) or because the longer six-year term afforded senators gives them some ability to withstand White House anger that House reps, with two-year terms, don’t have.

There were plenty of other Americans from private companies, think tanks, academia, and many former and retired U.S. government officials. And I’m going to be extremely careful in how I describe this: I have a pretty good hunch that some U.S. military officers were indeed in attendance, because — gosh! what a coincidence! — they just happened to be in Halifax on vacation at the exact same time the forum was taking place.

I was glad to see these Americans and had many fascinating chats with them. But I have to tell you all, dear readers, that the lack of official U.S. military and government representation was very obvious. And those brave Americans who did attend did not have an easy time. There was some pretty strong talk aimed at America, either directly or in absentia. And I think that many of the American visitors were surprised by the vehemence of some of the comments and questions directed their way.

Let me give you an example from an on-the-record session that I can quote directly. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (Democrat-New Hampshire) was the head of this year’s CODEL and had a one-on-one chat with moderator Nick Schifrin, an American journalist from PBS. You can see it all here. But things got really interesting when Canadian senator Stan Kucher got up to ask a question. It’s at the 18-minute-ish mark of the video linked to above. Kucher rattled off various criticisms of the “peace deal” that has been proposed for Ukraine, a deal that was dismissively described at the forum as a real estate transaction. After making his own views on the proposed deal clear (he’s not a fan), Kucher said this to Shaheen: “We’ve talked about allyship. What should the allies, who uphold democratic values, in the reality that the United States has walked away from them … what should the allies do?”

Pretty blunt by the standards of most Canadian senators I’ve ever talked to. I expected Shaheen to reject the premise of the question.

She didn’t.

She noted that other allies had already rejected the terms of the proposed peace, and reiterated that she agrees with them. And fair enough. But, wow. The question was about Ukraine, but it raised a much deeper point — America has “walked away” from its allies. And the leader of the CODEL took no issue with that characterization.

Here’s another example, again from an on-record part of the proceedings. David Zapolsky, chief global affairs and legal officer from Amazon, was giving remarks. (Amazon is one of the forum’s sponsors.) He was being interviewed by Jamie Tarabay, a Bloomberg reporter. You can see their conversation here, but as the panel was wrapping up, Tarabay dropped a humdinger of a question on Zapolsky. Here’s the quote (slightly cleaned up for clarity): “We’re in an age where there’s a government that puts pressure on companies [and] people for [Trump’s] own gain. You have been so steadfast in your support for Ukraine. What will Amazon do if your government says ‘Stop’?”

Zapolsky replied that the company has contracts with foreign governments and NATO allies and said that Amazon would only change those relationships if it was legally forced to do so via something like a sanction.

There were two fascinating things about that exchange (it starts around the 17-minute mark of that video). The first was the question itself; it alone was a signal of how much things have changed.

The second interesting thing is that Zapolsky’s answer was, with respect, bullshit.

I can see why he’s a legal officer! He gave an answer that was legally correct — the only way that the U.S. government can officially bar Amazon from providing cloud services for a foreign military, for example, would be by sanctions or some comparable legislation.

But that’s not how it could go. What would happen is that someone senior at Amazon, maybe Jeff Bezos himself, would get a call from some golf partner or drinking buddy in the administration, and the message will be simple: “Stop, or you won’t get contracts. We’ll arrange some hearings into your operations. Your little spaceflight company will find itself under way more levels of regulatory review than your Musk-owned competitor. This is what the boss wants. Make it happen.”

Amazon or any other U.S.-based company will then make the decision that best promotes and protects long-term shareholder value. And that decision will be, in every case, to submit and comply. Everyone in the room knew that. America is different, now. It’s inescapable.

Those are some examples from the on-the-record sessions. The most dramatic one by far — and yes, we’re finally getting to the headline you all clicked on — was in a session that was covered by Chatham House rules — I can directly quote what was said, but I cannot identify the speaker. The session, over dinner, was a small group. It was about America’s moral leadership in the world. Our moderator was a now-former American official. She was pretty frank and clear-eyed about how America’s allies currently view the country’s place in the world, but also expressed some hope that after the midterms next year or maybe the next presidential election, things would start to get more back to normal. We were assured that a lot of people in America are still with us. Some of the other Americans present nodded their heads.

And, like, gosh. Boy. I confess to readers that due to extenuating circumstances, my reserves of both patience and charm are largely exhausted at present. I informed the moderator, probably more bluntly than I might have normally, that that wasn’t going to happen. The damage is already done. I know firsthand that a great many Americans who really do believe in the post-1945 global order, and of America’s prior role in the world and the value of that role to America and Americans, are still inside the U.S. government. But I also know that many of them are retiring, or seeking early retirement, or switching to consulting gigs. They can’t stomach what U.S. foreign policy is becoming, and they won’t be a part of it.

Good for them. But every single person who departs is being replaced by someone who is totally fine with the new U.S. foreign policy. And sometimes is actually quite enthusiastic about it. That will accelerate the process that’s already underway. And those new people are going to have long careers, shaping things both in public and behind the scenes. And the damage to America’s soft power — the shutting down of aid programs and things like Voice of America — can’t be undone rapidly no matter who wins the midterms. U.S. troops that are pulled out of bases where the U.S. no longer sees a strategic reason for their presence aren’t likely to come back.

And, this is the critical part, wouldn’t necessarily be welcomed even if they did.

I worry that I might have been a bit brash with my American dining companions that night. (If any of them are reading this and if I was, sorry. Lot goin’ on over here.) But before I could worry about it too much, a senior military officer from a major (non-American) allied nation drove a stake right through the heart of the matter.

America has blown 80 years of accumulated goodwill and trust among its allies, our American moderator was told. A rock-steady assumption of allied defence and security planning for literally generations has been that America would act in its own interests, sure, but that those interests would be rational, and would still generally value the institutions that America itself worked so hard to build after the Second World War. America’s recent actions have destroyed the ability of any ally to continue to have faith in America to act even within its own strategic self-interest, let alone that of any ally.

The officer then said that even a swift return of America to its former role won’t matter.

Because “we will never fucking trust you again.”

The Americans at the table seemed somewhat startled by the heat of that pronouncement. I agreed with it entirely. So, it seemed to me, did most of the non-Americans.

This wasn’t the only such moment at the forum this year, but it was, to me, the most interesting. And it was still being talked about the next day. “Thank God,” one allied official said to me. “Someone had to tell them.”

If there’s one thing I think people should take from my visit to Halifax, it’s that. America’s former role is gone. And I think that Americans themselves are having the hardest time of all coming to terms with what that might actually mean in the long run.

Stay tuned for more from Halifax in the coming days.

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