Not sure I agree. Trump's view, with some justification, is Canada is embarassing itself. "I'll f'ing never trust you again" is what drug addicts scream at their parents as they are bundled into rehab as part of some tough love. US has coddled the world and we've lived irresponsibly and now the sugar daddy is cutting us off. We need to learn to live on our own two feet and do hard things that deserve respect. US respects a real partner not a dependant who is just happy to be invited. CAN foreign policy is a wreck, riddled by foreign interference. We are incoherent on Ukraine, Israel and very soft on China as they bully us far more than US. We have no secure borders and are an easy access point for criminal cartels and drugs. (ScooperCooper). Name one admirable but hard, consequential costly decision Canada's made in 20 years... maybe Afganistan?) No one is coming to us for serious military or global advice. Eyes roll when we label ourselves Trump tamers when it is so easy to compare to Mexico who is looking brilliant. Canadian bureaucrats like Carney, Ray or M. Joly are smug flop's gossiping about the world, changing with the wind. I am sorry but I'd chalk up the US visitor surprise more to the fact Canada hasn't the smarts to realize we don't deserve trust.
Huh? In the closing statement, the author ended by "chalking up" the "suprise" in the decline of US visitors to the absence of Canadian smarts. Rather, I believe, it's the disgusting 44% decline of CAD against USD.
SJI, you can do better than simply quote one Canadian tour group. In fact, Canadian tourism to the US is worse:
"Canadian residents made 5.6 million trips to the U.S., representing a 21.6% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. [ustravel.org], [thetravel.com]"
Note however that 5.6 million Canadian tourists this year is about 14% of the entire population. Yes, one in seven still are prepared to pay the ugly exchange rate AND disagree with you misfocused folks.
Indeed. The US has historically thrown hissy fits when we try to stand on our own. 'Stand on your own but in a way that is completely in line with what we want' isn't standing on our own.
Thank you for this excellent reportage. This is the only report I've read about this year's HISF, but if this turns out to be the only one I ever read, my time will have been well spent.
I've been saying, for a while now, what you said (about how the "old America" is not coming back) to anyone who will listen. That is, admittedly, a much, much smaller number of people than the audience you and Jen command.
Be that as it may, my sense is that most seem to be in thrall to "normalcy bias". And a lot of them are in Ottawa. It worries me, a great deal.
I completely agree with you and the unnamed allied general about the sense of betrayal felt by people in allied countries, including Canada, who are paying attention: "we will never fucking trust you [the Americans] again."
I acknowledge that "never" is a long time, but I also believe that, as you properly observed, a lot of the f-wits (my word, not yours, but you may agree with the characterization) who are "coming into their own" in Washington will likely be around, doing great damage, for years to come.
Normalcy and stasis are similar illusions, always were. We're meatsacks with a flash of a lifetime, even in the context of human evolution, let alone our planet's history.
Among other jokes, the whole racist "preserve our heritage" bs is silly mental masturbation: there were 3.3 b humans when I was born; there are 8.3 today... over 2.5 times in just my short, short lifespan.
Racists, and the American government, entertain childish illusions ... and the world turns. Like science, we evolve one funeral at a time.
This will not be a popular post for sure. But when one reads this type of rhetoric and TDS, it is hard to understand the mindset of those Canadians that feel this way, except those who have lost their jobs on account of Trump and his tariffs. It is not Trump who is to blame but the way Canada has allowed itself to be utterly dependent on te USA as a "single market." Sure as a huge world power and a economic behemoth, the leaders of Canadian industry has fallen prey to their own laziness and now their dissonance as to it is us Canadian's that are to blame for Canada's present state of economic weakness. Our leaders over the past decade and a half have fallen under the Woke spell, and we hoi polloi have been subjected to colonial guilt and witnessing reparations of eye watering $$$$'s amounts dished out to 6% of our population who Identify as "Indigenous." Our leaders have forsaken the the fact that we are a resource based economy, and have passed Government policies that have made the exploration, mining, and transport to tide water of these resources, impossible. Canada has created a "no go zone" for private industry, has quadrupled its number of civil service bureaucrats and those dependent on the Government for their income. So saying "we will never fcuking trust you again" should be said to a mirror, to reveal who never to trust again. Those with this mindset should grow up, get a grip and take an aim.😵💫
Trump's NSS and his foreign policy generally have upended 80 years of post-war strategy. The "upside" (more defence spending on the part of countries allied with the United States) will be a pyrrhic victory if the ultimate outcome is the dissolution of NATO.
And, for the record, the loss of NATO would be an enormous loss for the United States (at least as damaging, in other words, to US interests as it would be to Canadian interests and those of European member states).
Finally, to accuse those who are appalled by the Trump administration of "Trump Derangement Syndrome" is remarkable, considering the openly racist rhetoric of the NSS and Trump's feckless and self-serving abuse and mistreatment of Ukraine.
Not to mention his unseemly admiration of brutal dictators like Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.
Very well put. The disastrous results of a decade of bad government in this country, with no apparent signs of improvement, are not the fault of the Americans. Our problems will not be resolved by further straining relations with them.
A lot of what you say is true, however, this is the ideal time for our country Canada to take a stand. Develop oversea partner and markets develop our own defense system such as Ukraine has had to do otherwise we may well become the 51st State. Matts comments aver very accurate.
Thanks for this piece, Matt - fascinating, and (aside from the bluntness at such an event) unsurprising, and likely overdue.
I recently attended a professional international conference in the southwestern US. The majority of my US colleagues at this conference that I knew voted Democrat in the last presidential election, but a significant number did vote Republican. Though this conference was hosted in the western US this year, the event moves across the US, Canada, and Mexico from year to year, and there were Americans there from about 2/3 of American states from east to west and in between.
An interesting thing I observed (as I have since the US election on many video calls with these same American colleagues) that domestic politics are generally off the menu for discussion, unless the small group in discussion is basically 100% sure those present were either all Democrat or all Republican, and even then, conversations are conducted very carefully in scarcely above a whisper. It was all more than a bit Orwellian, and nothing at all like the loud, raucous political discussions I'm used to sitting in on having attended this conference across the US and Canada for around the last three decades.
Those who voted Democrat and/or are critical of the POTUS are frankly afraid to speak their mind in professional situations for fear of personal or professional reprisal from their colleagues who voted Republican. Those who voted Republican seemed, shall we say, a lot less brash than they had been before the election last year - they still broadly supported a reversal of many Democrat policies that had led them to vote for Trump - but they seemed a hell of a lot less sure of their vote in light of the Trump Administration's actions since the election. It was a palpable unease that I navigated carefully as a Canadian.
One story stands out. We had a bus tour related to the conference where the bus driver was a retired Vietnam veteran. He was as you'd expect for ex-military - friendly, professional, courteous, and conscientious, but matter-of-fact that he was our driver and that we should follow his lead and instruction. I was at the front of the bus and we bantered back and forth about what we were seeing as we drove to the various stops. During the course of our banter, he deduced that I was Canadian. It did not change his tone - until after the tour. As we stopped back at the conference hotel, he quickly locked eyes with me and motioned me to follow him off the bus, in that characteristic I'm-not-asking ex-military style. I seriously thought I had done something wrong.
He ushered me aside away from the rest of the bus tour guests so he could speak privately with me. I steeled myself for whatever it was I had done wrong.
He extended his hand to me to shake, advising me that he had served in Vietnam with Canadians who had volunteered to help the Americans in their fight there. He said they fought bravely alongside him and his fellow soldiers. He also noted that his father had noted the same about the Canadians he'd served with in Korea and WWII. Then his eyes teared up, and as he shook my hand, he quite sincerely apologized to me for the disgraceful antics of his Commander-In-Chief towards the greatest friendly country the US knows - Canada. This tough old US veteran had tears in his eyes as he apologized to this random Canadian he had just met.
Obviously this is a small sample size, but this is a very different, very not at ease America than the one I'm used to visiting. Of course, I'm sure you can find 25-30% of Republican voters overall who would support the POTUS and his team no matter what they did, but I'd opine there's another 15-20% of Republican voters who are a little less self-assured that all is well.
Voters from both sides of the D-R divide seem to be (very) slowly coming to the realization that, no matter if the pendulum swings back in the Democrats direction in the mid-terms and eventually the presidency, that things will never be the same in America, and that their experience when they travel abroad may feel very different as well.
The last time there was a mass exodus to Canada in my lifetime was those who left America as conscientious objecters (or, to use the term I heard as a youth, dodged the draft) during the Vietnam era. I knew several of them quite well personally, though most now have passed on. Many never went back to America until the early 2000's, though President Carter had pardoned them in 1977. I know it's the going joke that today's Democrat Americans always say they're going to leave the US and come to Canada, but never follow through. The way things are playing out, I have friends and colleagues that are seriously considering it.
Will Canadians welcome MAGA-dodging Americans in the coming decade?
This is a fantastic comment and I have heard of other versions of this. But the main point I would actually make is this quiet self sorting and self censorship you’re observing is something that’s actually backed up in big picture data. The Americans have been dividing themselves into ideological clusters for decades now. I have pollster friends who could explain this better and in more detail. But the way it manifests is that the number of actually competitive house districts in the United States is declining. Both parties are getting locked in on the support of districts that are fairly predictably blue or red. And the colour is getting deeper for both. One of the interesting social theories I read a few years ago is that one of the reasons western societies are becoming dysfunctional is because we all got pretty good at establishing barriers of social decorum that prevented us from talking about things like politics or religion or what not with casual social acquaintances, but then we all started following our hockey buddies and next-door neighbours on various social media platforms and saw what they were sharing. In some cases it would’ve deepened bonds. In others it ended up being deeply alienating. I really like my neighbours. I don’t have the slightest idea what their politics are. I am extremely OK with that.
One more thing - like Matt and the delegates at his conference in Halifax, I also advised my US colleagues at my conference, both D & R voters, that from the perspective of Canada and much of the rest of the world, they had largely lost our trust, and that this might be something very difficult to regain in at least a generation, barring a WWIII type scenario (God forbid). Many, including the Democrats, seemed generally surprised at this - I'm not sure they quite realize what it's like for someone you thought of as a trusted friend repeatedly punching you in the face and kicking you in the nads.
I keep telling my fellow Canadians to remember to hold their vitriol for the POTUS and his administration, not rank and file Americans. I'm having less success with each passing week in convincing my fellow Canadians of that, even if it's still true. The failure of US judicial, congressional, and senatorial checks and balances on the executive branch of their government will come home to roost on the average American abroad, even if (eventually) the voters change the faces within all four of these branches.
Never is a long time, but it will certainly be a long time before America will be trusted as it had been.
This is an important point, reminding us of the insane upside down speak they use. This "self-censorship" and real censorship has been growing in the US for some time, as their politics get progressively toxic.
The irony of a "free speech" country soooooo afraid to talk about difficult things...
It reminded me of when I was in Iran. I was visited in the middle of the night by an Iranian officer I had met. He wanted me to know that not everyone in Iran supported what was happening and not every one hated the West. Both incidents speak volumes about the regimes in power and to me really say a lot about freedom of speech, more so than being able to make outlandish statements.
Yes, I agree. It also says something positive and hopeful that the bonds of friendship between our two countries will not easily, or completely, be severed.
Fair enough. I did say, that's what they were called in my youth - draft dodgers - they didn't call themselves conscientious objectors, and neither did anyone else until much, much later. Most of these draft dodgers ended up being very strong contributors to Canadian life, at least in my experience. They may not have went to jail for their beliefs, but they did leave their country and all they knew because they did not think the fight in Vietnam was worth dying for.
If it was or not is certainly open to debate, but given the way the Vietnam vets were dishonoured when they returned to America after having answered the call, I'm not sure you can simply dismiss those draft dodgers who left America as simple cowards - they were perhaps more rational than their counterparts that did go, many giving their lives, limbs, and sanity for what most describe as a pointless and very costly loss in southeast Asia.
It's also telling that conscription ended in the US in 1973.
I lived that period too. There were conscientious objectors and draft dodgers. Those mistreating the Vietnam Vets were the same ilk as those who dodged the draft, their number just hadn't come up yet (literally). The same breed of villains who scream at Jews on campus today for perceived atrocities committed by Israel.
Cowards and contributors are not mutually exclusive.
Clay was sentenced to 5 years in prison and fined $ 10,000. but never served that time as the Supreme Court overturned his conviction. That decision also overturned the convictions of many who were denied status as a conscientious objector.
And he was Muhammad Ali by that time. Point unchanged, he was against the war and willing to suffer the consequences of refusing to serve. He could not have predicted the outcome of the SCOTUS when he made his decision.
I keep coming back to the invasion of Iraq. I don't think the pre Iraw view of the US was really coming back either. But we still made the post Iraq war work.
Are the Europeans actually taking actions commensurate with that statement, though?
That is, I’m sure that senior military officer wants to bring back the draft and build a military that can defend Europe (or at least their country) without American military largesse. Does their population, however, elect leaders that are cutting social programmes to pay for this?
We should be careful what we wish for in Canada, by the way, in terms of having Canadians truly take seriously that the US may never go “back to normal”. It’s different in Europe — their course of action after getting through the Stages of Grief about the loss of the USA as an ally will be to build independent capability. That may not be what people judge as their best course of action in Canada. Here, people may choose surrender.
In the business world in Canada, I think a lot of leaders, if they truly give up hope of a return to a pre-2025 USA, will be to pivot to be more pro-American. Move their companies to the USA, primarily. But also soft-support surrender via political channels, to become an economic vassal and accept subsidiary status. I don’t see any true willingness to “eat bitterness” to maintain sovereignty in the face of the overwhelming dominance of the Americans over Canada that we’ve allowed to build up over the past eight decades.
I think this is even true in the military. A lot of support to continue buying F-35s and integrating with the US military. Either they haven’t internalized that America may never go “back to normal”, or they’re willing to integrate anyway.
Maybe. However, I can see a few things arguing against the idea of surrender. Assuming an authoritarian America, we’re in the early days. Things will get uglier and the American government looks likely to become more overtly corrupt. If you were contemplating investing in the USA, what would give you confidence that you would not be more vulnerable to shakedown or outright confiscation than an American owned business?
The other challenge would be the inherent instability of authoritarian systems. America isn’t China where you could throw a few tens of thousands in prison and the rest of the country will just meekly comply. The United States is profoundly divided and the half of the population that is viscerally hostile to Trump won’t merely go away. If that half of the population believes that non-violent resistance is no longer effective or even potentially effective, it stands to reason they will try something else.
And Canadians? Some of us would surrender, perhaps a lot of us. But I think the idea that we could be quietly annexed out of naked self-interest is unlikely.
That's an interesting commentary on the military, but they really do seem to have internalized the "For America, By America" mentality. I wonder what it would take to shake them out of it.
Not sure what your access might be, but the support for F-35s is very, very hard to find among my contacts, with obvious, very good reason. Expensive waste of money, controlled by someone else, neither necessary nor that relevant for what we need now.
Oh I have no access in DND or Ministry of Defence. I’m in the electricity sector. If actual decision makers in the defence space are moving away from the F-35 in response to the American threats and untrustworthiness that’s great news.
I’m a forsaken American neocon from the Reagan era. I left the GOP when Trump took over and all the populist nonsense started and have obviously never voted for him, BUT (of course there’s a but) honestly, I understand the, I won’t say contempt, but the turning away from some of our useless, carping, sanctimonious and hypocritical ‘allies’ who’ve been freeloading for generations while criticizing us at every turn. The Trump people aren’t completely wrong about that.
This is what differentiates Trump and his supporters from the previous dozen US presidential administrations since WWII. They have made it pretty clear that the sensible, elite, centrist/center left, globalist, Davos blob can go fuck themselves. The Trump policy happens to be our old foreign policy, America first. American interests will come ahead of the world’s. MAGA gives zero fucks what Canadians think about that, so “we will never fucking trust you again” means nothing to them. That’s just how it is. But nothing lasts forever. It will get better.
This is a great comment. Sincerely. I love the candour. I’ll reply with equal candidness.
I think Canadians are realistic about Americans not giving a shit what we think. That’s just part of the deal and is woven pretty tightly in with the chronic Canadian inferiority complex. So no argument there.
But here’s the thing. You should give a shit. Not because our feelings matter. But because America is better able to accomplish its own strategic goals when it is not actively pissing in the cornflakes of all of its major trading partners and allies.
I don’t object at all to your description of deadbeat allies. I’ve been writing for almost 20 years about that. You might be able to find a Canadian who’s been more outspoken on us needing to do more to live up to our moral and political obligations, but honestly, none come to mind. I haven’t been shy about this. Trump taking deadbeat allies to task is, hands-down, the policy issue where he actually has my almost total support.
But here’s the thing. I can accept in theory that there was a need for some kind of structural realignment of the Western alliance. I’m even pretty realistic about the fact that it would’ve had to have been imposed on the alliance by the United States, with its vast economic and political power. But this isn’t that. Or if it is that, it’s only kind of incidentally that. American defence and foreign policy under Trump 2.0 is strategically incoherent. It is the textbook example of throwing whole heaps of babies out with a tsunami of bathwater. America could have gotten much more of what it wanted while using up much less of its accumulated good will. Instead, it’s likely to get a lot less than it wanted while paying a much higher price for it. That includes both economically and politically and in terms of “soft power.” I’ve always hated that term in the Canadian context, because it’s something we mainly talked about to justify/excuse our lack of hard power. But in the American context, soft power is real. It matters. And it has been completely flushed down the toilet, for very little actual gain, by some of the dumbest and most venal Americans around.
Some version of this change was necessary and overdue and justified. But this? This is a self lobotomy performed live on social media to entertain people who will never appreciate how much damage to their own political and economic interests they’ve done. But I hope they enjoyed the endorphin rush of the experience.
Although American presidents have politely asked our NATO allies to live up to their commitments since I was a lad, and that was Pierre Trudeau days, and all that ‘goodwill’ and fellowship didn’t work. So, this oddly, seems to be working, at the cost of goodwill.
PS I usually do agree with your take on things. Those views are refreshingly honest and based on reason rather than politics. That’s why I’m a subscriber. Keep up the great work!
PPS: I was only trying to share the feelings of many MAGA friends and family here in the US. I understand those feelings, but I don’t share them.
I get it. And my response to your MAGA friends and family there in the U.S. would be "You are doing the stupidest possible thing in response to a legitimate gripe."
I think this assessment correct. The irritation at the 'freeloaders' has not a little basis in fact: recall Trudeau's imbecilic public assertion that Canada would 'never' meet its agreed target of 2% of GDP on defence. Canada had better things to do with its debt financing. Even now, the sudden agreement to hit that number is to boost pay and maintain the bases properly to hit the target quickly, without an iota of additional capacity. Admittedly extra capacity will take time and even more investment but we have a government that has agreed to 3.5% of GDP on defence. However, what's a Canadian commitment worth?
Seeing is believing.
And, of course, absent a ballooning GDP, delivered by our aggressive and brilliant private sector titans (unimpeded by red tape), we'll have to curtail social spending. Doing that, mind you, would provide evidence of commitment because it will mean an annoyed peasantry. We indeed shall see.
All to say, American policy is not entirely insane or unreasonable. Its salesman and his minions are a distraction but a new world is to hand and the post-WWII one is dying. Exactly how things will fall out is TBD, but I can guarantee that it won't be comfortable for the little fish.
And, no America cares not for Canada at all. We're irrelevant.
Again, I think your last statement is untrue. Hardcore MAGA, yes, I'll concede that's factual, but I know a lot of Americans, many of who voted Republican not because of Trump but because they were frustrated with the Democrats, that are absolutely horrified and very apologetic at what Trump & Co have done to Canada (and other allies). I know, because they tell me, repeatedly.
Agreed, I’ve had many American business contacts and friends apologize on behalf of the president. Their words are laced with shame is the best way to describe it - like the embarrassing relative who makes a scene that you wish you could escape from but it’s too late and everyone sees it.
Owen, I think that you are quite correct in that we in Canada (I will allow other countries to speak for themselves) have brought on a large portion of what DJT has done. That will not be a popular view but, as you note, we certainly have been freeloading.
Now, to say that DJT and his administration have been right on everything is silly; they have been incredibly obtuse and foolish about ever so much. But, and it is a massive point, we do need to look in the mirror. Of course, a large part of the podcast was G & G noting that Canada is not taking much in the way of positive steps so that leads me to believe that all Canada will do is to play the victim and will not try to figure out why the US thinks so poorly of us.
In my view, any self-respecting and realistic sovereign state must pay sufficient attention to defence, "offshore" developments, intelligence gathering and credible cooperation with allies.
We have sometimes done the last thing well. But we sure as hell have not paid "sufficient attention to defence", much less put enough effort into understanding developments abroad.
Despite those shortcomings, though, I think that many Americans would likely accept that Canada has been a good neighbour and ally. Peaceful, generally cooperative. Willing to meet the Americans half-way (or more). And supportive during times of duress (9/11, Afghanistan).
As for the "middle finger" that Trump and company are directing at "the Davos crowd" and so-called "left, globalist" elites, well, given the USA's shambolic fiscal and political trajectory, I suspect that by mid-Century, Americans might well be clambering for some foreign aid from the "globalists" in various international and multilateral bodies to bail them out after more than 1/2 a century of fiscal profligacy and corruption.
Yes, I like the idea that a globalist, multilateral body COULD bail out the US if (when) we fail. If only! No, when our government becomes insolvent you’re all going down with us. :-(
Americans generally have a very positive view of Canadians, as a neighbor. I know I do. Up here in western New York there are many of us with Canadian family or friends. It is also true that our news outlets and most Americans don’t think much about Canada. We are comically ignorant about Canada, including who the PM is, and where the capital is; whereas the Canadians I know are generally better informed about the US than many Americans.
Related to this idea of US going insolvent…. I’ve been wondering if it has entered the calculus at some US think-tank that by taking over Canada’s resources (energy, minerals, timber, real estate (it is Trump after all), fresh water, etc) it helps stave off this insolvency. Or is this thinking too “tin-foiled hat-ish”?
The Trump policy is to steal as much as they can while they're still alive. American policy has always been about protecting America so it never had to fight on its own soil. That's what NORAD is. That's what NATO is. The child rapist has pissed all that away. This is entirely about the rape and pillage of the American people. So you're quite right, but it's now "America alone", ironic considering 20 Saudi hijackers made you the only country to use Article 5. Now, you don't have any friends not named Vlad (and he clearly owns Trump; even Tom Clancy never envisioned that coup). It will take generations for it to get better. America thinks it's immune. Global bondholders know differently.
I appreciate the honesty, and you make some absolutely legitimate points which I agree with, particularly the part about freeloading sanctimonious allies, personified by Trudeau I and II and his cronies.
I somewhat disagree that hardcore MAGA gives 'zero fucks' what Canada (or the world) thinks of them - au contrairie, I think hardcore MAGA enthusiasts think that Canada and the rest of the world should be on their knees (I won't extend this metaphor), eternally grateful for all economic activity and for winning every war etc. etc. and being ready to pay tribute to America for continuing to exist in the same world they do. That's a bit different than giving zero fucks. As for the rest of us, while Canadians and the rest of the world certainly have a tremendous amount to be grateful to the US for over the last century, the rather ahistorical ravings of the Vice-POTUS, echoed in the most recent foreign policy document, have us all thinking it's time to push a few history books written by historic western allies other than Americans toward the MAGA crowd.
I'm also not sure it's altogether accurate that the Trump policy is the old US foreign policy. Certain aspects of it pre WWII, sure, but even the recently released foreign policy document notes that there's going to be a 2025 'Trump corollary' to the Monroe doctrine (which is over 200 years old). The Monroe doctrine softened and morphed into a much more multilateral foreign policy since the days of FDR, though I'll certainly grant you that America remained firmly in the lead among nations.
Having said that, I think it's instructive to revisit the history of Ancient Rome's transition from Republic to Empire and the gradual decline of said Empire. If America makes (fre)nemies around the world, eventually those frenemies may bide their time and become actual (and some allied) enemies, and the Empire will gradually but steadily crumble due to external and eventually internal pressures. Eventually Rome fell not with a bang, but with a whimper. Whither, USA?
"freeloading for generations" lol... captures it perfectly.
Freeloading, as in, protecting ourselves from, and also dying for, American "adventures" in Viet Nam, Afghanistan, Irag, Korea, Iraq II, and so on. Not to mention that America can't seem to win anything without the EU (and us) should have given us pause decades ago. WMD, the Gulf of Tonkin... so many examples of America lying to justify playing with their favourite... wait for it... weapons of mass destruction.
America first has never changed. This is why America can't endorse any accountability other than itself, can't get behind any weapons bans (they make them all), can't participate in anything where they don't make the rules, lol. They've broken literally every trade deal they made when they decided they didn't like it. They were never to be trusted and, in fact, those who have to decide have known this since America wanted a revolution so they could make more lucrative land deals.
I agree with the sentiment but, having said that, after the last ten years I can absolutely guarantee that the Americans will not trust Canada to keep it's word in terms of military or other promises.
You know, we in glass houses have to be careful when we throw stones.
Or, to put it differently, we can certainly find just a whole lot of things that are odious about how DJT and his government have performed but, if we are honest, (and we are often not at all honest, even in our own personal thoughts), we brought on some element of this ourselves. Clearly, the US has absolutely overshot on dealing with the dereliction of some allies in meeting there obligations but, as I say, we do need to look in the mirror. It is not only "orange man" that has been destroying international relationships.
True. We’ve had a PM who for the past decade travelled the world for photo ops with important people and contributed nothing of substance. Our foreign policy is based more on how we feel today than any strategic doctrine.
only protecting themselves. they would absolutely use that as an excuse to occupy Canada, and I would not be a bit surprised if pewtrump discussed this theatre as strategy: "you get Ukraine; we get Canada-Greenland. See, now everyone's happy"
In the event that Russia comes "over the top" AND with Canada's complete military impotence, the US would be quite correct to see "this theatre as strategy" dontja think?
If they had morals or ethics they'd ask us first, which would be law (which they always ignore), common sense, and respect (neither of which they demonstrate).
Hard to know whether life would be better as Ruskie vassals, or vassals of the 2nd world theocracy/kleptocracy beneath us.
Were I the US--with a serious threat right next door to an impotent buffer state--there are no significant reasons (ethics, morals and law be damned) for not seeing this exposure as an inclusive threat to my people.
I wonder who's going to have a harder time with the new reality: Americans who think everything will go back to normal after the midterms or when Trump is out of office, or Canadians who smugly said we didn't need to spend money on defence because the US would defend us.
I don't know anyone who thought the US would defend us, lol, unless, as usual, they were defending their own interests. That's all they've ever done. This fiction that we've enjoyed some kind of peace ignores all the bullshit we've endured as a result of American global "adventures", mostly born of their ignorance, or their self-described specialness ... aka "manifest destiny."
The world was willing to treat Trump's first term as a fluke: a black swan event where Trump picked the lock on the electoral college despite losing the popular vote. The fact that Trump remained politically viable *after* the events of January 6, 2021 and then won a clear victory in the electoral college and popular vote in 2024 instead points to the conclusion that something has gone very, very wrong with America.
Even if America elects a more normal government in 2028, the world knows that America could be one election away from flipping back to ignorant, economically illiterate, and chauvinistic populism. I don't think Americans have quite grasped that effort is going to be required to dig their way out of that hole, nor do I think they appreciate how much damage has been done to their government and institutions. This is going to require BIG gestures: an impeachment of Trump, a new constitutional convention to fix the holes Trump and his goons have blasted into their government, swooping in to save democracy in another world war. (Let's try to avoid that last one, though.) Something to indicate that the past decade is not capable of repetition.
Since America is abandoning its allies, what entity has the power and leverage to step in and provide a glimpse of hope and optimism for the future? Sadly, I can't think of any candidates. Nor do I have much hope our ruling party can get its head out of its ass and see anything beyond its own interests (which is to stay in power by any means necessary).
If (and this is a very big "if") the EU and the UK collectively manage to greatly bolster their military capabilities, and develop a more robust mechanism for collective political and diplomatic action, it might be the likeliest candidate.
I know it's not a promising prospect, but thinking this gives me some sliver of hope.
The AFD is running at 30% in Germany and UKIP would win if the UK held an election today. Things aren't exactly swell on or adjacent to the continent, either.
All this tells you is how bad of a job the defenders of the previous consensus have done while in power. Standards of living have been dropping in Western countries and the best the elites could say in reply was, “Check your privilege,” because they weren’t of the “correct” group of the day. Or say ridiculous things like “Factory workers will learn to code!” Innumerable families and individuals have been struggling and the leaders act like there is nothing wrong. Drive through Midde America. Leave downtown London and take a look at the state of the rest of Britain. I have. If you can’t see why there has been a shift, I don’t know what to say.
I keep pointing out that Trump and all of these other parties would never have had a chance to come to power if the people in power did their jobs correctly. To paraphrase David Frum - if the current government can’t do X despite the electorate wanting X, they will elect the fascist to do it.
I support the 1945 consensus, but we need to stop pretending that everything was hunky-dory under old leadership.
Yup, I very much agree. But the problem with populists is that they just make things worse, not that you claimed otherwise. I used to be quite optimistic about the future in general, but things are looking very fucking dark these days. Here's to hoping we find a way to pull out.
OK...let's dial it down a bit. The yanks have been recipients of international disrepute, hatred, distaste, scorn and mocking for decades. Most of which they brought on themselves. The "ugly American" is a travelling trope.
They pissed off many by believing that their culture and corporations were better than all the others. That didn't land well in Europe. When the greenies almost tripped up the world, the US gave them the finger when "climate" was a religion. The "war on terror" convicted them of lying, unilateralism and destabilizaion. Their imperialism reigned supreme in Vietnam.
But their global contributions have greatly exceeded their failures. The Marshall Plan, UN, NATO, world economic balancing, civil rights, women transitioning from a wasted 50% of the workforce to highly valued business leaders, space and technological innovation.
There is no country more in demand from emigrants. No democratic country that wouldn't cherish the US as a next door neighbour (except Canada, perhaps).
Dial it down. They're going through a tough time. And things ain't that good here either.
I've been pushing back against Anti-Americanism my entire life, arguing that my entire lived experience with Americans from all walks of life from around the entire US was unfailingly positivism
I argued for decades that I had never really experienced the so-called 'Ugly American' but that I'd experienced plenty of 'Ugly Canadians' that openly mocked my many American friends. I questioned if the 'Ugly American' even existed, or if it was not just jealous projection.
Well...Ugly Americans, it turns out, do exist, and are really good at developing a cult, and convincing US evangelical Christians their New Messiah has come while simultaneously encouraging every creep in the USA. Ugly Americans are evidently capable of duping some of the best friends I have in the USA, and even some here in Canada, and in doing so are reinforcing the stereotype I argued against for most of my life.
Sorry, this was supposed to be linked to Owen Jones’s comment.
My question is what makes you think that the groups you have listed have been reasonable? There has been a hollowing out of the middle class for the past 40 years in Western countries. Family formation and birth rates have dropped precipitously. The average age of first home ownership is 40!!! School performance is down across the board with IQ actually declining after a steady increase over the past 100 years. Be honest, Trump has only showed up on the political scene for the last quarter of the 40 year decline.
Trump is a symptom of the disease. Again, I support the 1945 consensus but we keep pretending that nothing was going wrong. Historically, It is analogous to Emperor Antoninus Pius who ignored festering problems during the Pax Romana which lead to the end of it when everything blew up on Marcus Aurelius’s watch. This has happened before. Rome paid a huge price because it refused to acknowledge the problems. Are we willing to say that we did not do the necessary job?
Not sure who said " Trump was right about everything", but mostly I agreed with the statement, because , as you said, we were well on our way to the decline we are in, before Trump.
But holy jeebuz, could anyone have caused more carnage in the course of "fixing" the problems? One hopes that the American system of checks and balances is more powerful than this raving narcissist. The other ray of hope is that there are still good, rational people like commentator Jones in America and maybe someday we can have a beer together and agree that better days are ahead.
Matt, I think you channeled what 90%+ of all Canadians feel. We're never going back to the status quo ante, even if a new incarnation of Abraham Lincoln were somehow to miraculously appear. The fact that a substantial number of Americans (40% plus?) still drink the purple Kool-Aid of this comb-over caudillo in the White House shows that something has fundamentally changed in that country's psyche for the worst. Whoever that non-American officer was whom you quoted, he expressed the most honest prevailing sentiment of most western democracies: we don't f*cking trust these unprincipled grifters who now run the US government. It goes beyond Trump. It's also people like Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Jared Kushner, Alex Carp, etc. Amoral thugs for whom the only loyalty is to the almighty dollar (or Chinese Yuan). Palmerston was right: countries do not have eternal friends, only eternal interests. Our interests may still align in the future with our southern neighbour from time to time, but they are no longer our friends, as our PM has noted many times.
This is the report I wait for every year from you. America as we knew it is gone. I'm glad the Americans were given the message that the rest of the world knows it. Things are different now.
That's some clear-eyed and realistic analysis there Matt.
We were further disabused of any remaining illusions by the national security statement out of the White House last Friday.
And Russia's subsequent high-five.
"We were further disabused of any remaining illusions ". It's about time.
Its also just incoherent tbh. They turned a plan into a publicity stunt.
Not sure I agree. Trump's view, with some justification, is Canada is embarassing itself. "I'll f'ing never trust you again" is what drug addicts scream at their parents as they are bundled into rehab as part of some tough love. US has coddled the world and we've lived irresponsibly and now the sugar daddy is cutting us off. We need to learn to live on our own two feet and do hard things that deserve respect. US respects a real partner not a dependant who is just happy to be invited. CAN foreign policy is a wreck, riddled by foreign interference. We are incoherent on Ukraine, Israel and very soft on China as they bully us far more than US. We have no secure borders and are an easy access point for criminal cartels and drugs. (ScooperCooper). Name one admirable but hard, consequential costly decision Canada's made in 20 years... maybe Afganistan?) No one is coming to us for serious military or global advice. Eyes roll when we label ourselves Trump tamers when it is so easy to compare to Mexico who is looking brilliant. Canadian bureaucrats like Carney, Ray or M. Joly are smug flop's gossiping about the world, changing with the wind. I am sorry but I'd chalk up the US visitor surprise more to the fact Canada hasn't the smarts to realize we don't deserve trust.
Trump respects dictators, and those who kiss his ass...period.
"I'd chalk up the US visitor surprise"... also to an embarrassing 50% depreciation in the CAD.
huh?
Huh? In the closing statement, the author ended by "chalking up" the "suprise" in the decline of US visitors to the absence of Canadian smarts. Rather, I believe, it's the disgusting 44% decline of CAD against USD.
I thought you said it was 50%...?
We had a group going to SF area for a week this summer, all cancelled, all can easily afford to go... but I'm sure our group is a rare example :)
44% + fees converts to a (rounded) 50%
SJI, you can do better than simply quote one Canadian tour group. In fact, Canadian tourism to the US is worse:
"Canadian residents made 5.6 million trips to the U.S., representing a 21.6% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. [ustravel.org], [thetravel.com]"
Note however that 5.6 million Canadian tourists this year is about 14% of the entire population. Yes, one in seven still are prepared to pay the ugly exchange rate AND disagree with you misfocused folks.
Incoherent on Ukraine?
Bizarre.
Meanwhile.... America is never prouder.
(lol)
Thats not Canada. That's Europe.
Indeed. The US has historically thrown hissy fits when we try to stand on our own. 'Stand on your own but in a way that is completely in line with what we want' isn't standing on our own.
Matt:
Thank you for this excellent reportage. This is the only report I've read about this year's HISF, but if this turns out to be the only one I ever read, my time will have been well spent.
I've been saying, for a while now, what you said (about how the "old America" is not coming back) to anyone who will listen. That is, admittedly, a much, much smaller number of people than the audience you and Jen command.
Be that as it may, my sense is that most seem to be in thrall to "normalcy bias". And a lot of them are in Ottawa. It worries me, a great deal.
I completely agree with you and the unnamed allied general about the sense of betrayal felt by people in allied countries, including Canada, who are paying attention: "we will never fucking trust you [the Americans] again."
I acknowledge that "never" is a long time, but I also believe that, as you properly observed, a lot of the f-wits (my word, not yours, but you may agree with the characterization) who are "coming into their own" in Washington will likely be around, doing great damage, for years to come.
Normalcy bias is going to kill us. JG
Normalcy and stasis are similar illusions, always were. We're meatsacks with a flash of a lifetime, even in the context of human evolution, let alone our planet's history.
Among other jokes, the whole racist "preserve our heritage" bs is silly mental masturbation: there were 3.3 b humans when I was born; there are 8.3 today... over 2.5 times in just my short, short lifespan.
Racists, and the American government, entertain childish illusions ... and the world turns. Like science, we evolve one funeral at a time.
This will not be a popular post for sure. But when one reads this type of rhetoric and TDS, it is hard to understand the mindset of those Canadians that feel this way, except those who have lost their jobs on account of Trump and his tariffs. It is not Trump who is to blame but the way Canada has allowed itself to be utterly dependent on te USA as a "single market." Sure as a huge world power and a economic behemoth, the leaders of Canadian industry has fallen prey to their own laziness and now their dissonance as to it is us Canadian's that are to blame for Canada's present state of economic weakness. Our leaders over the past decade and a half have fallen under the Woke spell, and we hoi polloi have been subjected to colonial guilt and witnessing reparations of eye watering $$$$'s amounts dished out to 6% of our population who Identify as "Indigenous." Our leaders have forsaken the the fact that we are a resource based economy, and have passed Government policies that have made the exploration, mining, and transport to tide water of these resources, impossible. Canada has created a "no go zone" for private industry, has quadrupled its number of civil service bureaucrats and those dependent on the Government for their income. So saying "we will never fcuking trust you again" should be said to a mirror, to reveal who never to trust again. Those with this mindset should grow up, get a grip and take an aim.😵💫
Trump's NSS and his foreign policy generally have upended 80 years of post-war strategy. The "upside" (more defence spending on the part of countries allied with the United States) will be a pyrrhic victory if the ultimate outcome is the dissolution of NATO.
And, for the record, the loss of NATO would be an enormous loss for the United States (at least as damaging, in other words, to US interests as it would be to Canadian interests and those of European member states).
Finally, to accuse those who are appalled by the Trump administration of "Trump Derangement Syndrome" is remarkable, considering the openly racist rhetoric of the NSS and Trump's feckless and self-serving abuse and mistreatment of Ukraine.
Not to mention his unseemly admiration of brutal dictators like Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.
Very well put. The disastrous results of a decade of bad government in this country, with no apparent signs of improvement, are not the fault of the Americans. Our problems will not be resolved by further straining relations with them.
A lot of what you say is true, however, this is the ideal time for our country Canada to take a stand. Develop oversea partner and markets develop our own defense system such as Ukraine has had to do otherwise we may well become the 51st State. Matts comments aver very accurate.
Thanks for this piece, Matt - fascinating, and (aside from the bluntness at such an event) unsurprising, and likely overdue.
I recently attended a professional international conference in the southwestern US. The majority of my US colleagues at this conference that I knew voted Democrat in the last presidential election, but a significant number did vote Republican. Though this conference was hosted in the western US this year, the event moves across the US, Canada, and Mexico from year to year, and there were Americans there from about 2/3 of American states from east to west and in between.
An interesting thing I observed (as I have since the US election on many video calls with these same American colleagues) that domestic politics are generally off the menu for discussion, unless the small group in discussion is basically 100% sure those present were either all Democrat or all Republican, and even then, conversations are conducted very carefully in scarcely above a whisper. It was all more than a bit Orwellian, and nothing at all like the loud, raucous political discussions I'm used to sitting in on having attended this conference across the US and Canada for around the last three decades.
Those who voted Democrat and/or are critical of the POTUS are frankly afraid to speak their mind in professional situations for fear of personal or professional reprisal from their colleagues who voted Republican. Those who voted Republican seemed, shall we say, a lot less brash than they had been before the election last year - they still broadly supported a reversal of many Democrat policies that had led them to vote for Trump - but they seemed a hell of a lot less sure of their vote in light of the Trump Administration's actions since the election. It was a palpable unease that I navigated carefully as a Canadian.
One story stands out. We had a bus tour related to the conference where the bus driver was a retired Vietnam veteran. He was as you'd expect for ex-military - friendly, professional, courteous, and conscientious, but matter-of-fact that he was our driver and that we should follow his lead and instruction. I was at the front of the bus and we bantered back and forth about what we were seeing as we drove to the various stops. During the course of our banter, he deduced that I was Canadian. It did not change his tone - until after the tour. As we stopped back at the conference hotel, he quickly locked eyes with me and motioned me to follow him off the bus, in that characteristic I'm-not-asking ex-military style. I seriously thought I had done something wrong.
He ushered me aside away from the rest of the bus tour guests so he could speak privately with me. I steeled myself for whatever it was I had done wrong.
He extended his hand to me to shake, advising me that he had served in Vietnam with Canadians who had volunteered to help the Americans in their fight there. He said they fought bravely alongside him and his fellow soldiers. He also noted that his father had noted the same about the Canadians he'd served with in Korea and WWII. Then his eyes teared up, and as he shook my hand, he quite sincerely apologized to me for the disgraceful antics of his Commander-In-Chief towards the greatest friendly country the US knows - Canada. This tough old US veteran had tears in his eyes as he apologized to this random Canadian he had just met.
Obviously this is a small sample size, but this is a very different, very not at ease America than the one I'm used to visiting. Of course, I'm sure you can find 25-30% of Republican voters overall who would support the POTUS and his team no matter what they did, but I'd opine there's another 15-20% of Republican voters who are a little less self-assured that all is well.
Voters from both sides of the D-R divide seem to be (very) slowly coming to the realization that, no matter if the pendulum swings back in the Democrats direction in the mid-terms and eventually the presidency, that things will never be the same in America, and that their experience when they travel abroad may feel very different as well.
The last time there was a mass exodus to Canada in my lifetime was those who left America as conscientious objecters (or, to use the term I heard as a youth, dodged the draft) during the Vietnam era. I knew several of them quite well personally, though most now have passed on. Many never went back to America until the early 2000's, though President Carter had pardoned them in 1977. I know it's the going joke that today's Democrat Americans always say they're going to leave the US and come to Canada, but never follow through. The way things are playing out, I have friends and colleagues that are seriously considering it.
Will Canadians welcome MAGA-dodging Americans in the coming decade?
This is a fantastic comment and I have heard of other versions of this. But the main point I would actually make is this quiet self sorting and self censorship you’re observing is something that’s actually backed up in big picture data. The Americans have been dividing themselves into ideological clusters for decades now. I have pollster friends who could explain this better and in more detail. But the way it manifests is that the number of actually competitive house districts in the United States is declining. Both parties are getting locked in on the support of districts that are fairly predictably blue or red. And the colour is getting deeper for both. One of the interesting social theories I read a few years ago is that one of the reasons western societies are becoming dysfunctional is because we all got pretty good at establishing barriers of social decorum that prevented us from talking about things like politics or religion or what not with casual social acquaintances, but then we all started following our hockey buddies and next-door neighbours on various social media platforms and saw what they were sharing. In some cases it would’ve deepened bonds. In others it ended up being deeply alienating. I really like my neighbours. I don’t have the slightest idea what their politics are. I am extremely OK with that.
One more thing - like Matt and the delegates at his conference in Halifax, I also advised my US colleagues at my conference, both D & R voters, that from the perspective of Canada and much of the rest of the world, they had largely lost our trust, and that this might be something very difficult to regain in at least a generation, barring a WWIII type scenario (God forbid). Many, including the Democrats, seemed generally surprised at this - I'm not sure they quite realize what it's like for someone you thought of as a trusted friend repeatedly punching you in the face and kicking you in the nads.
I keep telling my fellow Canadians to remember to hold their vitriol for the POTUS and his administration, not rank and file Americans. I'm having less success with each passing week in convincing my fellow Canadians of that, even if it's still true. The failure of US judicial, congressional, and senatorial checks and balances on the executive branch of their government will come home to roost on the average American abroad, even if (eventually) the voters change the faces within all four of these branches.
Never is a long time, but it will certainly be a long time before America will be trusted as it had been.
Looking the tariff situation. I think the Judicial checks will come through. We'll be back to 2017 Trump again.
"are frankly afraid to speak their mind"
This is an important point, reminding us of the insane upside down speak they use. This "self-censorship" and real censorship has been growing in the US for some time, as their politics get progressively toxic.
The irony of a "free speech" country soooooo afraid to talk about difficult things...
As I've stated elsewhere in these comments, I think an actual civil war in the US is likely within the next decade.
It reminded me of when I was in Iran. I was visited in the middle of the night by an Iranian officer I had met. He wanted me to know that not everyone in Iran supported what was happening and not every one hated the West. Both incidents speak volumes about the regimes in power and to me really say a lot about freedom of speech, more so than being able to make outlandish statements.
Yes, I agree. It also says something positive and hopeful that the bonds of friendship between our two countries will not easily, or completely, be severed.
Excellent and heartfelt. Kudos to you for sharing.
Cassius Marcellus Clay, Jr. was a conscientious objector, so he went to jail for his beliefs. Your friends were draft dodgers.
Fair enough. I did say, that's what they were called in my youth - draft dodgers - they didn't call themselves conscientious objectors, and neither did anyone else until much, much later. Most of these draft dodgers ended up being very strong contributors to Canadian life, at least in my experience. They may not have went to jail for their beliefs, but they did leave their country and all they knew because they did not think the fight in Vietnam was worth dying for.
If it was or not is certainly open to debate, but given the way the Vietnam vets were dishonoured when they returned to America after having answered the call, I'm not sure you can simply dismiss those draft dodgers who left America as simple cowards - they were perhaps more rational than their counterparts that did go, many giving their lives, limbs, and sanity for what most describe as a pointless and very costly loss in southeast Asia.
It's also telling that conscription ended in the US in 1973.
I lived that period too. There were conscientious objectors and draft dodgers. Those mistreating the Vietnam Vets were the same ilk as those who dodged the draft, their number just hadn't come up yet (literally). The same breed of villains who scream at Jews on campus today for perceived atrocities committed by Israel.
Cowards and contributors are not mutually exclusive.
Like the president....
Clay was sentenced to 5 years in prison and fined $ 10,000. but never served that time as the Supreme Court overturned his conviction. That decision also overturned the convictions of many who were denied status as a conscientious objector.
And he was Muhammad Ali by that time. Point unchanged, he was against the war and willing to suffer the consequences of refusing to serve. He could not have predicted the outcome of the SCOTUS when he made his decision.
I was taught by 2 conscientious objectors in high school in Winnipeg. Both of them live in BC now, retired, and neither went back.
I keep coming back to the invasion of Iraq. I don't think the pre Iraw view of the US was really coming back either. But we still made the post Iraq war work.
Are the Europeans actually taking actions commensurate with that statement, though?
That is, I’m sure that senior military officer wants to bring back the draft and build a military that can defend Europe (or at least their country) without American military largesse. Does their population, however, elect leaders that are cutting social programmes to pay for this?
We should be careful what we wish for in Canada, by the way, in terms of having Canadians truly take seriously that the US may never go “back to normal”. It’s different in Europe — their course of action after getting through the Stages of Grief about the loss of the USA as an ally will be to build independent capability. That may not be what people judge as their best course of action in Canada. Here, people may choose surrender.
In the business world in Canada, I think a lot of leaders, if they truly give up hope of a return to a pre-2025 USA, will be to pivot to be more pro-American. Move their companies to the USA, primarily. But also soft-support surrender via political channels, to become an economic vassal and accept subsidiary status. I don’t see any true willingness to “eat bitterness” to maintain sovereignty in the face of the overwhelming dominance of the Americans over Canada that we’ve allowed to build up over the past eight decades.
I think this is even true in the military. A lot of support to continue buying F-35s and integrating with the US military. Either they haven’t internalized that America may never go “back to normal”, or they’re willing to integrate anyway.
Maybe. However, I can see a few things arguing against the idea of surrender. Assuming an authoritarian America, we’re in the early days. Things will get uglier and the American government looks likely to become more overtly corrupt. If you were contemplating investing in the USA, what would give you confidence that you would not be more vulnerable to shakedown or outright confiscation than an American owned business?
The other challenge would be the inherent instability of authoritarian systems. America isn’t China where you could throw a few tens of thousands in prison and the rest of the country will just meekly comply. The United States is profoundly divided and the half of the population that is viscerally hostile to Trump won’t merely go away. If that half of the population believes that non-violent resistance is no longer effective or even potentially effective, it stands to reason they will try something else.
And Canadians? Some of us would surrender, perhaps a lot of us. But I think the idea that we could be quietly annexed out of naked self-interest is unlikely.
I believe an actual civil war in America is likely within the next decade.
I’d certainly rate the odds of that as well above zero.
That's an interesting commentary on the military, but they really do seem to have internalized the "For America, By America" mentality. I wonder what it would take to shake them out of it.
Not sure what your access might be, but the support for F-35s is very, very hard to find among my contacts, with obvious, very good reason. Expensive waste of money, controlled by someone else, neither necessary nor that relevant for what we need now.
Oh I have no access in DND or Ministry of Defence. I’m in the electricity sector. If actual decision makers in the defence space are moving away from the F-35 in response to the American threats and untrustworthiness that’s great news.
I’m a forsaken American neocon from the Reagan era. I left the GOP when Trump took over and all the populist nonsense started and have obviously never voted for him, BUT (of course there’s a but) honestly, I understand the, I won’t say contempt, but the turning away from some of our useless, carping, sanctimonious and hypocritical ‘allies’ who’ve been freeloading for generations while criticizing us at every turn. The Trump people aren’t completely wrong about that.
This is what differentiates Trump and his supporters from the previous dozen US presidential administrations since WWII. They have made it pretty clear that the sensible, elite, centrist/center left, globalist, Davos blob can go fuck themselves. The Trump policy happens to be our old foreign policy, America first. American interests will come ahead of the world’s. MAGA gives zero fucks what Canadians think about that, so “we will never fucking trust you again” means nothing to them. That’s just how it is. But nothing lasts forever. It will get better.
This is a great comment. Sincerely. I love the candour. I’ll reply with equal candidness.
I think Canadians are realistic about Americans not giving a shit what we think. That’s just part of the deal and is woven pretty tightly in with the chronic Canadian inferiority complex. So no argument there.
But here’s the thing. You should give a shit. Not because our feelings matter. But because America is better able to accomplish its own strategic goals when it is not actively pissing in the cornflakes of all of its major trading partners and allies.
I don’t object at all to your description of deadbeat allies. I’ve been writing for almost 20 years about that. You might be able to find a Canadian who’s been more outspoken on us needing to do more to live up to our moral and political obligations, but honestly, none come to mind. I haven’t been shy about this. Trump taking deadbeat allies to task is, hands-down, the policy issue where he actually has my almost total support.
But here’s the thing. I can accept in theory that there was a need for some kind of structural realignment of the Western alliance. I’m even pretty realistic about the fact that it would’ve had to have been imposed on the alliance by the United States, with its vast economic and political power. But this isn’t that. Or if it is that, it’s only kind of incidentally that. American defence and foreign policy under Trump 2.0 is strategically incoherent. It is the textbook example of throwing whole heaps of babies out with a tsunami of bathwater. America could have gotten much more of what it wanted while using up much less of its accumulated good will. Instead, it’s likely to get a lot less than it wanted while paying a much higher price for it. That includes both economically and politically and in terms of “soft power.” I’ve always hated that term in the Canadian context, because it’s something we mainly talked about to justify/excuse our lack of hard power. But in the American context, soft power is real. It matters. And it has been completely flushed down the toilet, for very little actual gain, by some of the dumbest and most venal Americans around.
Some version of this change was necessary and overdue and justified. But this? This is a self lobotomy performed live on social media to entertain people who will never appreciate how much damage to their own political and economic interests they’ve done. But I hope they enjoyed the endorphin rush of the experience.
Yes, I agree with you Matt.
Although American presidents have politely asked our NATO allies to live up to their commitments since I was a lad, and that was Pierre Trudeau days, and all that ‘goodwill’ and fellowship didn’t work. So, this oddly, seems to be working, at the cost of goodwill.
PS I usually do agree with your take on things. Those views are refreshingly honest and based on reason rather than politics. That’s why I’m a subscriber. Keep up the great work!
PPS: I was only trying to share the feelings of many MAGA friends and family here in the US. I understand those feelings, but I don’t share them.
I get it. And my response to your MAGA friends and family there in the U.S. would be "You are doing the stupidest possible thing in response to a legitimate gripe."
I think this assessment correct. The irritation at the 'freeloaders' has not a little basis in fact: recall Trudeau's imbecilic public assertion that Canada would 'never' meet its agreed target of 2% of GDP on defence. Canada had better things to do with its debt financing. Even now, the sudden agreement to hit that number is to boost pay and maintain the bases properly to hit the target quickly, without an iota of additional capacity. Admittedly extra capacity will take time and even more investment but we have a government that has agreed to 3.5% of GDP on defence. However, what's a Canadian commitment worth?
Seeing is believing.
And, of course, absent a ballooning GDP, delivered by our aggressive and brilliant private sector titans (unimpeded by red tape), we'll have to curtail social spending. Doing that, mind you, would provide evidence of commitment because it will mean an annoyed peasantry. We indeed shall see.
All to say, American policy is not entirely insane or unreasonable. Its salesman and his minions are a distraction but a new world is to hand and the post-WWII one is dying. Exactly how things will fall out is TBD, but I can guarantee that it won't be comfortable for the little fish.
And, no America cares not for Canada at all. We're irrelevant.
Again, I think your last statement is untrue. Hardcore MAGA, yes, I'll concede that's factual, but I know a lot of Americans, many of who voted Republican not because of Trump but because they were frustrated with the Democrats, that are absolutely horrified and very apologetic at what Trump & Co have done to Canada (and other allies). I know, because they tell me, repeatedly.
Agreed, I’ve had many American business contacts and friends apologize on behalf of the president. Their words are laced with shame is the best way to describe it - like the embarrassing relative who makes a scene that you wish you could escape from but it’s too late and everyone sees it.
Owen, I think that you are quite correct in that we in Canada (I will allow other countries to speak for themselves) have brought on a large portion of what DJT has done. That will not be a popular view but, as you note, we certainly have been freeloading.
Now, to say that DJT and his administration have been right on everything is silly; they have been incredibly obtuse and foolish about ever so much. But, and it is a massive point, we do need to look in the mirror. Of course, a large part of the podcast was G & G noting that Canada is not taking much in the way of positive steps so that leads me to believe that all Canada will do is to play the victim and will not try to figure out why the US thinks so poorly of us.
Well.
Canada has been remiss. That much is clear.
In my view, any self-respecting and realistic sovereign state must pay sufficient attention to defence, "offshore" developments, intelligence gathering and credible cooperation with allies.
We have sometimes done the last thing well. But we sure as hell have not paid "sufficient attention to defence", much less put enough effort into understanding developments abroad.
Despite those shortcomings, though, I think that many Americans would likely accept that Canada has been a good neighbour and ally. Peaceful, generally cooperative. Willing to meet the Americans half-way (or more). And supportive during times of duress (9/11, Afghanistan).
As for the "middle finger" that Trump and company are directing at "the Davos crowd" and so-called "left, globalist" elites, well, given the USA's shambolic fiscal and political trajectory, I suspect that by mid-Century, Americans might well be clambering for some foreign aid from the "globalists" in various international and multilateral bodies to bail them out after more than 1/2 a century of fiscal profligacy and corruption.
If current trends persist, of course.
Yes, I like the idea that a globalist, multilateral body COULD bail out the US if (when) we fail. If only! No, when our government becomes insolvent you’re all going down with us. :-(
Americans generally have a very positive view of Canadians, as a neighbor. I know I do. Up here in western New York there are many of us with Canadian family or friends. It is also true that our news outlets and most Americans don’t think much about Canada. We are comically ignorant about Canada, including who the PM is, and where the capital is; whereas the Canadians I know are generally better informed about the US than many Americans.
Related to this idea of US going insolvent…. I’ve been wondering if it has entered the calculus at some US think-tank that by taking over Canada’s resources (energy, minerals, timber, real estate (it is Trump after all), fresh water, etc) it helps stave off this insolvency. Or is this thinking too “tin-foiled hat-ish”?
"Comically ignorant about Canada" is a bit narrow.
One of the things that blew me away, that I missed, living in the US was almost ANY news about ANYWHERE other than the U.S.
America is comically ignorant of anything outside America.
The Trump policy is to steal as much as they can while they're still alive. American policy has always been about protecting America so it never had to fight on its own soil. That's what NORAD is. That's what NATO is. The child rapist has pissed all that away. This is entirely about the rape and pillage of the American people. So you're quite right, but it's now "America alone", ironic considering 20 Saudi hijackers made you the only country to use Article 5. Now, you don't have any friends not named Vlad (and he clearly owns Trump; even Tom Clancy never envisioned that coup). It will take generations for it to get better. America thinks it's immune. Global bondholders know differently.
I appreciate the honesty, and you make some absolutely legitimate points which I agree with, particularly the part about freeloading sanctimonious allies, personified by Trudeau I and II and his cronies.
I somewhat disagree that hardcore MAGA gives 'zero fucks' what Canada (or the world) thinks of them - au contrairie, I think hardcore MAGA enthusiasts think that Canada and the rest of the world should be on their knees (I won't extend this metaphor), eternally grateful for all economic activity and for winning every war etc. etc. and being ready to pay tribute to America for continuing to exist in the same world they do. That's a bit different than giving zero fucks. As for the rest of us, while Canadians and the rest of the world certainly have a tremendous amount to be grateful to the US for over the last century, the rather ahistorical ravings of the Vice-POTUS, echoed in the most recent foreign policy document, have us all thinking it's time to push a few history books written by historic western allies other than Americans toward the MAGA crowd.
I'm also not sure it's altogether accurate that the Trump policy is the old US foreign policy. Certain aspects of it pre WWII, sure, but even the recently released foreign policy document notes that there's going to be a 2025 'Trump corollary' to the Monroe doctrine (which is over 200 years old). The Monroe doctrine softened and morphed into a much more multilateral foreign policy since the days of FDR, though I'll certainly grant you that America remained firmly in the lead among nations.
Having said that, I think it's instructive to revisit the history of Ancient Rome's transition from Republic to Empire and the gradual decline of said Empire. If America makes (fre)nemies around the world, eventually those frenemies may bide their time and become actual (and some allied) enemies, and the Empire will gradually but steadily crumble due to external and eventually internal pressures. Eventually Rome fell not with a bang, but with a whimper. Whither, USA?
"freeloading for generations" lol... captures it perfectly.
Freeloading, as in, protecting ourselves from, and also dying for, American "adventures" in Viet Nam, Afghanistan, Irag, Korea, Iraq II, and so on. Not to mention that America can't seem to win anything without the EU (and us) should have given us pause decades ago. WMD, the Gulf of Tonkin... so many examples of America lying to justify playing with their favourite... wait for it... weapons of mass destruction.
America first has never changed. This is why America can't endorse any accountability other than itself, can't get behind any weapons bans (they make them all), can't participate in anything where they don't make the rules, lol. They've broken literally every trade deal they made when they decided they didn't like it. They were never to be trusted and, in fact, those who have to decide have known this since America wanted a revolution so they could make more lucrative land deals.
Fuck em.
“we will never fucking trust you again.”....CORRECT.
I agree with the sentiment but, having said that, after the last ten years I can absolutely guarantee that the Americans will not trust Canada to keep it's word in terms of military or other promises.
You know, we in glass houses have to be careful when we throw stones.
Or, to put it differently, we can certainly find just a whole lot of things that are odious about how DJT and his government have performed but, if we are honest, (and we are often not at all honest, even in our own personal thoughts), we brought on some element of this ourselves. Clearly, the US has absolutely overshot on dealing with the dereliction of some allies in meeting there obligations but, as I say, we do need to look in the mirror. It is not only "orange man" that has been destroying international relationships.
True. We’ve had a PM who for the past decade travelled the world for photo ops with important people and contributed nothing of substance. Our foreign policy is based more on how we feel today than any strategic doctrine.
The orange mcdonald's garbage can is still here.
JT had to resign under pressure.
Put another way...
In Canada, JT's party pulled out the long knives and thrust every one of them in, after signalling they would for some time.
In the U.S., party members either cower in silence or put their hands out for their "taste."
Looks different to me, lol.
Language, Debbie!...but you must trust them to keep the Ruskies from comin' over the top.
only protecting themselves. they would absolutely use that as an excuse to occupy Canada, and I would not be a bit surprised if pewtrump discussed this theatre as strategy: "you get Ukraine; we get Canada-Greenland. See, now everyone's happy"
In the event that Russia comes "over the top" AND with Canada's complete military impotence, the US would be quite correct to see "this theatre as strategy" dontja think?
No, obviously lol.
If they had morals or ethics they'd ask us first, which would be law (which they always ignore), common sense, and respect (neither of which they demonstrate).
Hard to know whether life would be better as Ruskie vassals, or vassals of the 2nd world theocracy/kleptocracy beneath us.
Were I the US--with a serious threat right next door to an impotent buffer state--there are no significant reasons (ethics, morals and law be damned) for not seeing this exposure as an inclusive threat to my people.
Just ask the French in 1939.
I wonder who's going to have a harder time with the new reality: Americans who think everything will go back to normal after the midterms or when Trump is out of office, or Canadians who smugly said we didn't need to spend money on defence because the US would defend us.
I think Canadians are going to have a much harder time with reality in the next few years.
The US was never defending us. They were using our territory to fight over, so nothing landed in their country. It was always about them.
Why not both?
Still no clear sign that the majority of Canadians realize the change.
I don't know anyone who thought the US would defend us, lol, unless, as usual, they were defending their own interests. That's all they've ever done. This fiction that we've enjoyed some kind of peace ignores all the bullshit we've endured as a result of American global "adventures", mostly born of their ignorance, or their self-described specialness ... aka "manifest destiny."
The world was willing to treat Trump's first term as a fluke: a black swan event where Trump picked the lock on the electoral college despite losing the popular vote. The fact that Trump remained politically viable *after* the events of January 6, 2021 and then won a clear victory in the electoral college and popular vote in 2024 instead points to the conclusion that something has gone very, very wrong with America.
Even if America elects a more normal government in 2028, the world knows that America could be one election away from flipping back to ignorant, economically illiterate, and chauvinistic populism. I don't think Americans have quite grasped that effort is going to be required to dig their way out of that hole, nor do I think they appreciate how much damage has been done to their government and institutions. This is going to require BIG gestures: an impeachment of Trump, a new constitutional convention to fix the holes Trump and his goons have blasted into their government, swooping in to save democracy in another world war. (Let's try to avoid that last one, though.) Something to indicate that the past decade is not capable of repetition.
Since America is abandoning its allies, what entity has the power and leverage to step in and provide a glimpse of hope and optimism for the future? Sadly, I can't think of any candidates. Nor do I have much hope our ruling party can get its head out of its ass and see anything beyond its own interests (which is to stay in power by any means necessary).
All in all, a major bummer.
If (and this is a very big "if") the EU and the UK collectively manage to greatly bolster their military capabilities, and develop a more robust mechanism for collective political and diplomatic action, it might be the likeliest candidate.
I know it's not a promising prospect, but thinking this gives me some sliver of hope.
The AFD is running at 30% in Germany and UKIP would win if the UK held an election today. Things aren't exactly swell on or adjacent to the continent, either.
All this tells you is how bad of a job the defenders of the previous consensus have done while in power. Standards of living have been dropping in Western countries and the best the elites could say in reply was, “Check your privilege,” because they weren’t of the “correct” group of the day. Or say ridiculous things like “Factory workers will learn to code!” Innumerable families and individuals have been struggling and the leaders act like there is nothing wrong. Drive through Midde America. Leave downtown London and take a look at the state of the rest of Britain. I have. If you can’t see why there has been a shift, I don’t know what to say.
I keep pointing out that Trump and all of these other parties would never have had a chance to come to power if the people in power did their jobs correctly. To paraphrase David Frum - if the current government can’t do X despite the electorate wanting X, they will elect the fascist to do it.
I support the 1945 consensus, but we need to stop pretending that everything was hunky-dory under old leadership.
Yup, I very much agree. But the problem with populists is that they just make things worse, not that you claimed otherwise. I used to be quite optimistic about the future in general, but things are looking very fucking dark these days. Here's to hoping we find a way to pull out.
I wish I could like this more than once. Right on the money.
Totally agree but we are forgetting how Trump his family and hencmen are racking in fortunes at Americas expense
Indeed. Like I said, "a very big 'if'".
OK...let's dial it down a bit. The yanks have been recipients of international disrepute, hatred, distaste, scorn and mocking for decades. Most of which they brought on themselves. The "ugly American" is a travelling trope.
They pissed off many by believing that their culture and corporations were better than all the others. That didn't land well in Europe. When the greenies almost tripped up the world, the US gave them the finger when "climate" was a religion. The "war on terror" convicted them of lying, unilateralism and destabilizaion. Their imperialism reigned supreme in Vietnam.
But their global contributions have greatly exceeded their failures. The Marshall Plan, UN, NATO, world economic balancing, civil rights, women transitioning from a wasted 50% of the workforce to highly valued business leaders, space and technological innovation.
There is no country more in demand from emigrants. No democratic country that wouldn't cherish the US as a next door neighbour (except Canada, perhaps).
Dial it down. They're going through a tough time. And things ain't that good here either.
The dial shall remain fixed in its current position.
No surprise here. This IS, after all, your football.
I've been pushing back against Anti-Americanism my entire life, arguing that my entire lived experience with Americans from all walks of life from around the entire US was unfailingly positivism
I argued for decades that I had never really experienced the so-called 'Ugly American' but that I'd experienced plenty of 'Ugly Canadians' that openly mocked my many American friends. I questioned if the 'Ugly American' even existed, or if it was not just jealous projection.
Well...Ugly Americans, it turns out, do exist, and are really good at developing a cult, and convincing US evangelical Christians their New Messiah has come while simultaneously encouraging every creep in the USA. Ugly Americans are evidently capable of duping some of the best friends I have in the USA, and even some here in Canada, and in doing so are reinforcing the stereotype I argued against for most of my life.
Dudes went to the moon and stuff.
Sorry, this was supposed to be linked to Owen Jones’s comment.
My question is what makes you think that the groups you have listed have been reasonable? There has been a hollowing out of the middle class for the past 40 years in Western countries. Family formation and birth rates have dropped precipitously. The average age of first home ownership is 40!!! School performance is down across the board with IQ actually declining after a steady increase over the past 100 years. Be honest, Trump has only showed up on the political scene for the last quarter of the 40 year decline.
Trump is a symptom of the disease. Again, I support the 1945 consensus but we keep pretending that nothing was going wrong. Historically, It is analogous to Emperor Antoninus Pius who ignored festering problems during the Pax Romana which lead to the end of it when everything blew up on Marcus Aurelius’s watch. This has happened before. Rome paid a huge price because it refused to acknowledge the problems. Are we willing to say that we did not do the necessary job?
Not sure who said " Trump was right about everything", but mostly I agreed with the statement, because , as you said, we were well on our way to the decline we are in, before Trump.
But holy jeebuz, could anyone have caused more carnage in the course of "fixing" the problems? One hopes that the American system of checks and balances is more powerful than this raving narcissist. The other ray of hope is that there are still good, rational people like commentator Jones in America and maybe someday we can have a beer together and agree that better days are ahead.
Matt, I think you channeled what 90%+ of all Canadians feel. We're never going back to the status quo ante, even if a new incarnation of Abraham Lincoln were somehow to miraculously appear. The fact that a substantial number of Americans (40% plus?) still drink the purple Kool-Aid of this comb-over caudillo in the White House shows that something has fundamentally changed in that country's psyche for the worst. Whoever that non-American officer was whom you quoted, he expressed the most honest prevailing sentiment of most western democracies: we don't f*cking trust these unprincipled grifters who now run the US government. It goes beyond Trump. It's also people like Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Jared Kushner, Alex Carp, etc. Amoral thugs for whom the only loyalty is to the almighty dollar (or Chinese Yuan). Palmerston was right: countries do not have eternal friends, only eternal interests. Our interests may still align in the future with our southern neighbour from time to time, but they are no longer our friends, as our PM has noted many times.
Shaka, when the walls fell.
(Nods sadly) Shaka, when the walls fell 😔
This is the report I wait for every year from you. America as we knew it is gone. I'm glad the Americans were given the message that the rest of the world knows it. Things are different now.
Sadly, we live above a crack house.