The constitution is about what is legal, while politics is about what is seen as legitimate. Ideally those overlap, but we need to think about scenarios where they pull in opposite directions.
I sense the shift, and also hope for it Brian. If it accomplishes nothing more than to clear the air and give Canada a fresh, different, polite (today's sub-theme), or any adjective of your choice, political approach, then at least we moved forward.
Unfortunately, no matter how one parses the Constitution vis a vis the ballot totals, the bureaucracy will be playing catch up after it hauls in its anchors. That may be good, or bad. I’m mostly just thankful we have checks and balances on extremes and am willing to live with incrementalism by default, as long as it produces sane policies and results.
If the cons take power we are all toast. They say don't worry about the climate crisis because it isn't a problem. I was evacuated last year and this year I am surrounded by twice as many wildfires. I have heard con supporters say it just Trudeau lying to scare us into voting Liberal. I have also heard them say that it is Trudeau who is starting all the wildfires. PeePee and his supporters are delusional. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-delegates-reject-climate-change-is-real-1.5957739
Appreciate your reply Linda. I understand your position with empathy and am sorry that you were evacuated and are surrounded by fire again.
I don’t want to defend or denigrate any mainstream federal political party. Deep down I can’t allow myself to think other than that all of their flawed members want to do what they think is best for Canada - even the Bloc’s because they can’t accomplish nearly as much without Canada. Each of us opinions differently on the flaws and the best and must vote accordingly, though it is a chore to see through the hyperbole (for which we have The Line) and believe in the salesmanship of deliverance because politics is a blood sport. Before you can govern you have to win. And, crucially, for which there are checks and balances, we have to guess who will change their hat after they win.
Canada needs to work together because that makes us all stronger. We can no longer pit region against region, citizen against citizen, party against party to achieve selfish goals. The worth of togetherness is illustrated by the sharing of firefighters, who are dying for us, interprovincially and internationally.
Rather than wasting more valuable time debating who most contributed to our divisions, we should just get on with a fresh start. If it doesn’t clear the air we get another chance at the next election. The bureaucracy will still be there - a loaded statement best dealt with separately.
“People will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.” Maya Angelou (perhaps)
In the end, the next election, whether it be next year or in 2025, will be Pierre Poilievre's to win or to lose. All depending on whether he wants to move more to to the centre, as Erin O'Toole did, or continue to curry the favour of those leaning more to the right. I would have thought Jean Charest was a certainty to win had be won the leadership. Since his elevation to the head of the Conservative Party, I have noticed a certain change of temper from Poilievre, which may bode well for their success. There is a lot of ground in the centre to set up shop and Poilievre can easily stake his claim somewhere in there.
Is this really the time for political strategists? More than half of British Columbia's residents are less than $200/mo away from paying their rent or mortgage. Things are worse in the GTA. Someone needs to stand up and tell people they are being deceived, that their votes are being exploited and that we must demand accountability from whomever may be in charge.
I am sick of hearing Little PeePee's lies. We need to hear more about Trudeau's amazing wins. This is an article about Trudeau in the Washington Post. They can see what a great leader he is. "Canada is booming like it never has before. Unprecedented population growth, record-low unemployment, the most diversified economy in its 156-year history and a world-beating stock market since 2021 is contributing to what nine out of 10 economists say will be the best performer among the Group of Seven developed countries by 2025." Analysis by Matthew A. Winkler | Bloomberg Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/2023/06/22/justin-trudeau-diversified-canada-s-economy-like-no-one-before/781d656e-10e6-11ee-8d22-5f65b2e2f6ad_story.html?
- the highest employment rate in our history 95.9%.
- Triple AAA credit rating.
- Lowest debt in the G7.
- Voted Best Country in the World.
- Voted Highest Quality of life.
In comparison, Stephen Harper promised balanced budgets, he ran EIGHT STRAIGHT DEFICITS! His gov was the worst of any prime minister since 1946. Since he was elected, the federal debt has increased by over $150 billion, wiping out the reduction in federal debt achieved under Chretien and Martin.
Cons love to spread the lie of being , competent, conscientious, financial managers. In reality they are only interested in defunding education, health care, social programs, for the benefit of the wealthy.
I smell a constitution crisis! In the event the Libs/NDP teamed up to maintain power over a higher seat count to the Conservatives, Alberta and Saskatchewan would riot. To answer your thesis, this would definitely not be seen as legitimate for those two, and would lead to Western Alienation that would make Justin's dad blush.
Would we riot? I think not. We would, however, be very much unhappy with the result of central Canadian continuation of domination of our resources and the consequent foolish attempt to beggar our industry. Riot? Why? We would have such other useful options that rioting would be ineffective. Much more useful options.
Riot was used as an exaggeration of how we would react, not a literal result. I guess there's a small chance of it, but I would expect this to throw a tank of gas on the smoldering flame of the separation movement at the very least. But I agree, an actual riot wouldn't be very helpful
On that basis I can accept your metaphor of "riot," as I would also expect that, to use your further metaphor, it would "... throw a tank of gas on the smoldering flame of the separation movement..."
As for me, it wouldn't take very much, not very much at all, for me to see an acceleration of that "smoldering flame" as a very good thing, particularly when one considers the ever so precious "intelligent" actions of Stephen Guilbeault to match those of his "master," JT.
I believe that Andrew Coyne brought this scenario up sometime last week in one of his editorials in the Globe and Mail. Rather than decry the conventions of our parliamentary democracy, he encouraged Poilievre to recognize the scenario and build a broader base in Eastern Canada. The key will be the "905" region.
I concur that winning the 905 would absolutely be preferred to the nightmare coalition approach. I also think he should start opening channels to the BQ for how they could work together if they needed to form government.
Not sure if you noticed, but everyone posting here does so with some respect for each other. You post like you just arrived from a Post Media newspaper. Using childish names "Liebranos" and accusing others of being "saboteur"; it doesn't belong here. If you can't be respectful, go back to you Post Media sand box.
Telling him to go somewhere else isn't much better, Brad. I've taken a MUCH lighter hand on comment moderation here, against my better judgment — Jen prevailed on me to lighten up. This kind of stuff is exactly why I think that's a mistake.
Sorry Matt. I left the Post Media world because it became a toxic echo chamber with no real discourse. I would hate to see this little haven become the same.
Apparently you didn't read the article. If the CPC has more seats than the Liberals but less than the combined total of Liberals and NDP, then it would be constitutionally sound for the coalition to continue to govern. This is especially true if the Liberals and NDP openly agree to a coalition during the election.
Of course, constitutionally sound is not the same as politically sound. A lower Liberal seat count would change the dynamic between the Libeysnd NDP. Can you say Finance Minister Singh??
"Governing with a very small plurality with the help of the Bloc would be difficult ..." This is a truism in Canadian politics, but I wonder if it's still true. The BQ are barely a seperatist party anymore in practice and really are a 'protecting Quebec within Canada' party. The CPC essentially mirrors that regional focus, protecting what to perceived as the interests of mainly Alberta against the "intrusions" of the federal government. Why wouldn't a CPC/BQ grouping be able to focus on giving provinces more latitude within Confederation as a way to encourage local solutions? Maybe I'm naive, but I'm not sure cooperation between the CPC and BQ is the political kiss of death it once was.
If the CPC hasn't done it in the interim, the next minority government may be about ousting the current opposition leader in favour of a candidate more palatable to moderate Canadians
There's a related question with regard to the recent Alberta provincial election. If the NDP had gotten ~1200 more votes in six Calgary ridings, they would have won the necessary 44 seats for a majority but still only would have had around 44% of the popular vote compared to 52% for the UCP. I'm very glad that scenario didn't come into play because I just can't imagine a government with 8% less of the popular vote than the opposition governing with that lack of political legitimacy (though I am certain the NDP would have tried to do so). I have tended to resist reforming our electoral system, but one that could conceivably have returned such a result can hardly be called legitimate or even 'democratic'...
Everything Professor Lagassé says is correct, but I'd add another dimension-namely, the public's own perception of legitimacy. For one thing, there's the King-Byng affair of the 1920s, where the Prime Minister ran on his critcizing the Governor General's interference in democracy, even though everything the GG did was constitutional:
And there was the aftermath of the 2008 election, when Stephen Harper was nearly deposed as Prime Minister by an Opposition coalition. He saved his neck by running to the Governor General and requesting prorogation. While the Opposition's actions would've been constitutional and Stéphane Dion could've become Prime Minister, the public backlash would've been devastating. Harper correctly anticipated that, on top of some of the Liberal and NDP MPs themselves fearing that they'd be voted out in the next election for backing the coalition.
Perception really is everything in politics, including getting the public to see things your way.
I admire Philippe Lagassé's scholarly and informative wisdom and am thankful. It gives us a sane pillar of rules to rely on when human frailty produces failure.
However, we have a dire systemic pan Canadian problem if the electorate can't coalesce for some semblance of a common practical good before those rules kick in. We need to work together, not against each other. For that to happen the electorate must be respected by the elites, who must return the favour of the vast benefits that Canada gave them. They would do well to remember that they would have nothing but the fruits of their immediate family’s labour if they lost their parents on an otherwise deserted island and had no way off in their lifetime: no future, no pension, no social support, no …
My conscience kept tap, tap tapping on my shoulder; so a correction is in order through addition. Canada and its institutional pillars of peace, order and good government deserve respect from all citizens. Each one of them must give back what they are able to, and also consider where they would now be if the deserted island scenario applied personally.
“Ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” - John F. Kennedy … All will be better for it. We’ve got activists coming out of the ears of our monetary (you get to supply a pet adjective here) pot. Rolling up sleeves and doing the hard practical work would be more useful in my demented opinion.
An unconvincing argument. A small majority is still a majority and no less stable. What's required is clear strategy and ice cold tactical precision in policy and governing.
The NDP will stupidly oppose everything the Conservatives do so it will be between the Conservatives snd Liberals to negotiate and find common ground on legislation and commitee work. We hsve been here b4 in 2008
The Liberals should do the right thing politically and provide space for the CPC to govern. The Liberals can use the time for renewal. When ready, the Liberals can concoct a non confidence vote and then propose a coalition government to replace the Conservatives.
Nicely put together, Grizwald. I concur with your observations. My catch phrase for the last few years has been to " bring progressivism back into the Conservative Party of Canada". Which I think in many ways is what your are referring to.
I just would hope enough Canadians vote to clearly remove the liberals from power
I sense the shift, and also hope for it Brian. If it accomplishes nothing more than to clear the air and give Canada a fresh, different, polite (today's sub-theme), or any adjective of your choice, political approach, then at least we moved forward.
Unfortunately, no matter how one parses the Constitution vis a vis the ballot totals, the bureaucracy will be playing catch up after it hauls in its anchors. That may be good, or bad. I’m mostly just thankful we have checks and balances on extremes and am willing to live with incrementalism by default, as long as it produces sane policies and results.
If the cons take power we are all toast. They say don't worry about the climate crisis because it isn't a problem. I was evacuated last year and this year I am surrounded by twice as many wildfires. I have heard con supporters say it just Trudeau lying to scare us into voting Liberal. I have also heard them say that it is Trudeau who is starting all the wildfires. PeePee and his supporters are delusional. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-delegates-reject-climate-change-is-real-1.5957739
Appreciate your reply Linda. I understand your position with empathy and am sorry that you were evacuated and are surrounded by fire again.
I don’t want to defend or denigrate any mainstream federal political party. Deep down I can’t allow myself to think other than that all of their flawed members want to do what they think is best for Canada - even the Bloc’s because they can’t accomplish nearly as much without Canada. Each of us opinions differently on the flaws and the best and must vote accordingly, though it is a chore to see through the hyperbole (for which we have The Line) and believe in the salesmanship of deliverance because politics is a blood sport. Before you can govern you have to win. And, crucially, for which there are checks and balances, we have to guess who will change their hat after they win.
Canada needs to work together because that makes us all stronger. We can no longer pit region against region, citizen against citizen, party against party to achieve selfish goals. The worth of togetherness is illustrated by the sharing of firefighters, who are dying for us, interprovincially and internationally.
Rather than wasting more valuable time debating who most contributed to our divisions, we should just get on with a fresh start. If it doesn’t clear the air we get another chance at the next election. The bureaucracy will still be there - a loaded statement best dealt with separately.
“People will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.” Maya Angelou (perhaps)
Thank you Philippe and The Line. This was informative and useful.
Thank you Philippe. It is all very well laid out.
In the end, the next election, whether it be next year or in 2025, will be Pierre Poilievre's to win or to lose. All depending on whether he wants to move more to to the centre, as Erin O'Toole did, or continue to curry the favour of those leaning more to the right. I would have thought Jean Charest was a certainty to win had be won the leadership. Since his elevation to the head of the Conservative Party, I have noticed a certain change of temper from Poilievre, which may bode well for their success. There is a lot of ground in the centre to set up shop and Poilievre can easily stake his claim somewhere in there.
Is this really the time for political strategists? More than half of British Columbia's residents are less than $200/mo away from paying their rent or mortgage. Things are worse in the GTA. Someone needs to stand up and tell people they are being deceived, that their votes are being exploited and that we must demand accountability from whomever may be in charge.
I am sick of hearing Little PeePee's lies. We need to hear more about Trudeau's amazing wins. This is an article about Trudeau in the Washington Post. They can see what a great leader he is. "Canada is booming like it never has before. Unprecedented population growth, record-low unemployment, the most diversified economy in its 156-year history and a world-beating stock market since 2021 is contributing to what nine out of 10 economists say will be the best performer among the Group of Seven developed countries by 2025." Analysis by Matthew A. Winkler | Bloomberg Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/2023/06/22/justin-trudeau-diversified-canada-s-economy-like-no-one-before/781d656e-10e6-11ee-8d22-5f65b2e2f6ad_story.html?
From Britain, The Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/27/canada-worlds-wokest-country-leaving-britain-in-the-dust/
Thanks to Trudeau Canada has:
- the highest employment rate in our history 95.9%.
- Triple AAA credit rating.
- Lowest debt in the G7.
- Voted Best Country in the World.
- Voted Highest Quality of life.
In comparison, Stephen Harper promised balanced budgets, he ran EIGHT STRAIGHT DEFICITS! His gov was the worst of any prime minister since 1946. Since he was elected, the federal debt has increased by over $150 billion, wiping out the reduction in federal debt achieved under Chretien and Martin.
Cons love to spread the lie of being , competent, conscientious, financial managers. In reality they are only interested in defunding education, health care, social programs, for the benefit of the wealthy.
I smell a constitution crisis! In the event the Libs/NDP teamed up to maintain power over a higher seat count to the Conservatives, Alberta and Saskatchewan would riot. To answer your thesis, this would definitely not be seen as legitimate for those two, and would lead to Western Alienation that would make Justin's dad blush.
Would we riot? I think not. We would, however, be very much unhappy with the result of central Canadian continuation of domination of our resources and the consequent foolish attempt to beggar our industry. Riot? Why? We would have such other useful options that rioting would be ineffective. Much more useful options.
Riot was used as an exaggeration of how we would react, not a literal result. I guess there's a small chance of it, but I would expect this to throw a tank of gas on the smoldering flame of the separation movement at the very least. But I agree, an actual riot wouldn't be very helpful
On that basis I can accept your metaphor of "riot," as I would also expect that, to use your further metaphor, it would "... throw a tank of gas on the smoldering flame of the separation movement..."
As for me, it wouldn't take very much, not very much at all, for me to see an acceleration of that "smoldering flame" as a very good thing, particularly when one considers the ever so precious "intelligent" actions of Stephen Guilbeault to match those of his "master," JT.
I believe that Andrew Coyne brought this scenario up sometime last week in one of his editorials in the Globe and Mail. Rather than decry the conventions of our parliamentary democracy, he encouraged Poilievre to recognize the scenario and build a broader base in Eastern Canada. The key will be the "905" region.
I concur that winning the 905 would absolutely be preferred to the nightmare coalition approach. I also think he should start opening channels to the BQ for how they could work together if they needed to form government.
Not sure if you noticed, but everyone posting here does so with some respect for each other. You post like you just arrived from a Post Media newspaper. Using childish names "Liebranos" and accusing others of being "saboteur"; it doesn't belong here. If you can't be respectful, go back to you Post Media sand box.
Telling him to go somewhere else isn't much better, Brad. I've taken a MUCH lighter hand on comment moderation here, against my better judgment — Jen prevailed on me to lighten up. This kind of stuff is exactly why I think that's a mistake.
Behave. All of you.
Sorry Matt. I left the Post Media world because it became a toxic echo chamber with no real discourse. I would hate to see this little haven become the same.
My job to worry about that, sir. Can't have people deputizing themselves. That's how things get nasty.
Apparently you didn't read the article. If the CPC has more seats than the Liberals but less than the combined total of Liberals and NDP, then it would be constitutionally sound for the coalition to continue to govern. This is especially true if the Liberals and NDP openly agree to a coalition during the election.
Of course, constitutionally sound is not the same as politically sound. A lower Liberal seat count would change the dynamic between the Libeysnd NDP. Can you say Finance Minister Singh??
"Governing with a very small plurality with the help of the Bloc would be difficult ..." This is a truism in Canadian politics, but I wonder if it's still true. The BQ are barely a seperatist party anymore in practice and really are a 'protecting Quebec within Canada' party. The CPC essentially mirrors that regional focus, protecting what to perceived as the interests of mainly Alberta against the "intrusions" of the federal government. Why wouldn't a CPC/BQ grouping be able to focus on giving provinces more latitude within Confederation as a way to encourage local solutions? Maybe I'm naive, but I'm not sure cooperation between the CPC and BQ is the political kiss of death it once was.
If the CPC hasn't done it in the interim, the next minority government may be about ousting the current opposition leader in favour of a candidate more palatable to moderate Canadians
There's a related question with regard to the recent Alberta provincial election. If the NDP had gotten ~1200 more votes in six Calgary ridings, they would have won the necessary 44 seats for a majority but still only would have had around 44% of the popular vote compared to 52% for the UCP. I'm very glad that scenario didn't come into play because I just can't imagine a government with 8% less of the popular vote than the opposition governing with that lack of political legitimacy (though I am certain the NDP would have tried to do so). I have tended to resist reforming our electoral system, but one that could conceivably have returned such a result can hardly be called legitimate or even 'democratic'...
Philippe, great article. insightful as always.
Everything Professor Lagassé says is correct, but I'd add another dimension-namely, the public's own perception of legitimacy. For one thing, there's the King-Byng affair of the 1920s, where the Prime Minister ran on his critcizing the Governor General's interference in democracy, even though everything the GG did was constitutional:
https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/king-byng-affair
And there was the aftermath of the 2008 election, when Stephen Harper was nearly deposed as Prime Minister by an Opposition coalition. He saved his neck by running to the Governor General and requesting prorogation. While the Opposition's actions would've been constitutional and Stéphane Dion could've become Prime Minister, the public backlash would've been devastating. Harper correctly anticipated that, on top of some of the Liberal and NDP MPs themselves fearing that they'd be voted out in the next election for backing the coalition.
Perception really is everything in politics, including getting the public to see things your way.
I admire Philippe Lagassé's scholarly and informative wisdom and am thankful. It gives us a sane pillar of rules to rely on when human frailty produces failure.
However, we have a dire systemic pan Canadian problem if the electorate can't coalesce for some semblance of a common practical good before those rules kick in. We need to work together, not against each other. For that to happen the electorate must be respected by the elites, who must return the favour of the vast benefits that Canada gave them. They would do well to remember that they would have nothing but the fruits of their immediate family’s labour if they lost their parents on an otherwise deserted island and had no way off in their lifetime: no future, no pension, no social support, no …
My conscience kept tap, tap tapping on my shoulder; so a correction is in order through addition. Canada and its institutional pillars of peace, order and good government deserve respect from all citizens. Each one of them must give back what they are able to, and also consider where they would now be if the deserted island scenario applied personally.
“Ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” - John F. Kennedy … All will be better for it. We’ve got activists coming out of the ears of our monetary (you get to supply a pet adjective here) pot. Rolling up sleeves and doing the hard practical work would be more useful in my demented opinion.
An unconvincing argument. A small majority is still a majority and no less stable. What's required is clear strategy and ice cold tactical precision in policy and governing.
The NDP will stupidly oppose everything the Conservatives do so it will be between the Conservatives snd Liberals to negotiate and find common ground on legislation and commitee work. We hsve been here b4 in 2008
The Liberals should do the right thing politically and provide space for the CPC to govern. The Liberals can use the time for renewal. When ready, the Liberals can concoct a non confidence vote and then propose a coalition government to replace the Conservatives.
That or chance an election
Nicely put together, Grizwald. I concur with your observations. My catch phrase for the last few years has been to " bring progressivism back into the Conservative Party of Canada". Which I think in many ways is what your are referring to.