All hope and very little substance. This is good for the people on the ground who need this sort of pick me up, but doesn’t do much for people away from the front line who are trying to make sense of this. Couching the conflict in good vs evil is too simple. Putin is not an irrational actor and no amount of repeating that over and over on social media is going to change that geopolitical fact. The piece is good, I’ve been following her Twitter from Ukraine, but a scroll through her feed is proof enough this piece is off the mark of the reality of what is happening on the ground.
"Putin is not an irrational actor". I would have agreed until he invaded. Everything the US laid out, and advertised leading up to this suggested Russia would take an economic hammering for such a foolish action. It's almost like Putin thought the west was kidding and Trump was still in the White House. It has never been more clear that he isn't. One wonders why no one in the US seems to be noticing.
I think Putin factored in the economic hit from the sanctions. Many oligarchs that were investing important capital outside of Russia are being cut off by the west and essentially sent back to Russia, which is exactly what Putin has wanted and has been calling for in Russia for some time now. These sanctions are not a surprise to him and his people are already used to being screwed over by the west, which is how these sanctions are really been on the ground. And even if they get tired and frustrated with what he is doing and the economic fallout, they do not have the right or ability to protest. Putin has spent the past fifteen years clearly out any sort of organization or leadership that would have undermined him. This is what I mean when I say he is not irrational, this has been planned in the long grass for a long, long time. He more prepared and ready than we are, that is at least how I see things from where I sit. I remember reading articles in FA about Putin pushing back on what he perceived as NATO encroachment around Ukraine and closer to the borders of Russia-- and this was while his country was a member of the group of nations. There is propaganda on both sides, and on our side we are being duped by this whole "this is unprovoked and all of a sudden" and the proof is that fact that many people will read what I write here and interpret it as a support toward Putin when in reality I am just trying to be as realistic as I can here.
The fallout....poor choice of words...the results will be interesting to see over time. He may well have planned for a lot, but I can't imagine he expected his army to be failing so badly. If indeed the oligarchs have brought all their money home, it's worth half what it was.
Now, I'm one of those irrational unrealistic people who think that any shares they own in foreign companies should be liquidated and put into a fund to rebuild Ukraine. Ditto their boats and bizjets. But that might scare our oligarchs a little too much.
I still think all of this could have been solved around a table, with a couple of referendums with foreign oversight. Instead, we have carnage. I have no idea how this plays out at this point.
Took me a sec to get the fallout quip- I truly do not think anyone has the balls to fire a bomb off. But I did not think he would invade Ukraine either
His military’s capability might be less than we thought and my comment doesn’t touch on that fact for a reason. Their is a tremendous fog of war at the moment to make any judgments without real intelligence which right now is strictly for military leaders in that region alone. As these things go during war. Everything else we see is filtered, as Orwell said, through many mediums before getting to our eyeballs.
Seems to me this is "rational" for putin. The world knows he wants Ukraine and the rest of the old soviet states. He already took Crimea under Obama. The world (and especially putin) knows the US is in no position to act as the world's body guard anymore (due to social and political domestic issues, and the embarrassment of afghan withdrawal). I don't know how anyone could take them seriously right now. I also don't understand the sentiment you expressed that Russia is taking an economic beating. Yea the sanctions are doing something and making life hard for the Russian people (like putin cares), but all these countries talking tough are gonna go through their own terrible economic repercussions due to their dependence on Russian oil, because we/they all kneecapped our/their own energy sectors. Maybe my read on this is completely off but I think putin is gonna have us by the short and curlies for a while. I believe he is emboldened by some terrible decisions made under the current us administration.
What decisions of the current US administration? The US doesn't need Russian oil. The US isn't trying to be the world's bodyguard(The exit from Afghanistan was predetermined the day Trump said they would leave. As with all foreign wars, whoever invaded loses, as the invaded just waits for them to leave. This was always going to be a Gong Show). They are just a powerful part of NATO. Canada has a glorious opportunity to supply a part of Europe's fuel needs. The ruble has lost half its value, and the Russian stock exchange is afraid to open.
The Russian Army is now a punchline, and has lost its credibility. I think Putin will stay in power for exactly as long as his benefactors allow it. I suspect that clock is running as they watch their assets being seized and their bank accounts frozen.
I disagree with you there Mr. MacIntyre re your comment “all hope and very little substance”. Hope is a powerful force that when combined with strategic action moves mountains. If you are able to keep hope alive you fight another day. When hope is extinguished, it is truly over.
Hope is a force sustainer and plays an important role at the home front. But hope does not win campaigns and wars. Hope is not a defence for real violence. The greatest example of hope during conflict in our modern world happened during the Battle of Britain. But merely holding out through the German bombings wouldn’t have unseated Hitler’s evil empire, it still requires a capable and willing military force. To continue with the example, this is why it was the entrance of the US that turned the tides and not the tremendous hope displayed by the British people during the war.
I agree with your thoughtful comment - I guess what I was trying to articulate was that no victory would be possible without a strong belief that it is a possibility.
Good article. There are multiple venues for conflict: military, economic, communicaition and, before the conflict began, it seemed many pundits predicted that Russia had its bets covered on all three. It had a more powerful army. It surely anticipated the sanctions and had countermeasures. And, we've heard over and over how brilliantly they use channels -- new and old -- for propoganda and disinformation.
But, its military -- particularly it's logistics -- seem to be much less capable than anticipated and Ukraine seemed underestimated. It seems that the sanctions bit a lot harder than Putin expected and while they will also hurt us, Russia is running out of time in Ukraine. And, Ukraine proved to play the propoganda and communication game much, much better than I think anyone anticipated. They own the narrative just about everywhere except in Russia. Certainly, Biden's telegraphing exactly what Russia was going to do helped, but Ukraine is proving to be masterful as telling a good story, which is playing a significant role in capturing world attention and earning a LOT more international support than they would have otherwise.
Mike Tyson was once asked by a reporter about his fight plan with an upcoming opponent. His answer? "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” Russia had a plan, got punched in the mouth, and has been floundering ever since. The expectation they set -- around the world -- was that they would walk in and install a government prostrate to Russia. They have not. Even if a peace plan includes disputed regions and a roll back of sanctions -- pretty significant wins -- they have not lived up to the expectations they set and will be seen as the loser of the war they started.
Humans are natural storytellers -- we like a compelling narrative. Ukraine has one. Russia does not.
"Russia has specifically addressed foreign fighters in Ukraine, warning that if they’re caught they won’t be getting POW treatment". I wonder if Russia is mentioning the same thing is likely for those who join in its recruiting posters in Syria?
Five million views, just from the 370 million in North America and the 500 million in Europe? Wow!
I'm sure social media is why all those Ukrainians joined up. Unless they heard it first from their neighbours and relatives.
It reads like the author saw this 3 minute "SNL" parody a few years ago, and thought it was a serious congratulations to "Scott" for saving the world by agreeing with social media crusades.
Really, I think the credit goes to "video", whatever its medium of distribution, and that's still mostly actual TV. If journalists hadn't let themselves be embedded, if they'd captured video of the very similar explosions in residential and downtown Baghdad (except for the oil ministry, infamously), the Arab hospitals, there would have been more urgency to end that war.
This is the first time there's been real-time, high-quality video feeds of what's happening to the *defending* side in an industrial-age war of artillery and aerial bombardment, uncensored.
Some of that is part of the social media age, though. It's a country, like ours, full of people with cameras, mostly on their phones. Maybe they share them via social media directly, but in many cases, the video gets picked up by either social media personalities with a big following or by traditional news outlets.
And, it's not just the availability of video, it's the perspective. There's a 'currating' of what gets a lot of attention that helps set a very positive narrative for Ukraine. The older woman cursing out the Russian solder, offering him seeds for his pockets so that sunflowers will grow when he dies in the Ukraine. The Russian prisionor allowed to call his Mom at home in Russia. The Russian tanks out of gas, with drivers bewildered that they were even in the Ukraine. The more recent scenes of the results of Russian bombing on Ukraine civilians. It all tells a very compelling story. It's David vs. Golliath.
I'm not naive enough to think it's the whole story, or even necessarily an accurate representation of what's happening everywhere in Ukraine. But, it seems to be part of the story -- it's rooted in some kind of truth, whereas the Russian narrative seems detached from reality. That contrast seems to be winning a lot more international support for Ukraine than they probably would have earned otherwise; certainly more than in 2014, when the story wasn't a cut and dry, good vs. evil.
“With foreign boots on the ground, even if they’re not backed by foreign governments, the battle becomes the world vs. Russia, of good against evil. The closer to home it gets, the more the world scrolls and sympathizes.” From the piece itself.
All hope and very little substance. This is good for the people on the ground who need this sort of pick me up, but doesn’t do much for people away from the front line who are trying to make sense of this. Couching the conflict in good vs evil is too simple. Putin is not an irrational actor and no amount of repeating that over and over on social media is going to change that geopolitical fact. The piece is good, I’ve been following her Twitter from Ukraine, but a scroll through her feed is proof enough this piece is off the mark of the reality of what is happening on the ground.
"Putin is not an irrational actor". I would have agreed until he invaded. Everything the US laid out, and advertised leading up to this suggested Russia would take an economic hammering for such a foolish action. It's almost like Putin thought the west was kidding and Trump was still in the White House. It has never been more clear that he isn't. One wonders why no one in the US seems to be noticing.
I think Putin factored in the economic hit from the sanctions. Many oligarchs that were investing important capital outside of Russia are being cut off by the west and essentially sent back to Russia, which is exactly what Putin has wanted and has been calling for in Russia for some time now. These sanctions are not a surprise to him and his people are already used to being screwed over by the west, which is how these sanctions are really been on the ground. And even if they get tired and frustrated with what he is doing and the economic fallout, they do not have the right or ability to protest. Putin has spent the past fifteen years clearly out any sort of organization or leadership that would have undermined him. This is what I mean when I say he is not irrational, this has been planned in the long grass for a long, long time. He more prepared and ready than we are, that is at least how I see things from where I sit. I remember reading articles in FA about Putin pushing back on what he perceived as NATO encroachment around Ukraine and closer to the borders of Russia-- and this was while his country was a member of the group of nations. There is propaganda on both sides, and on our side we are being duped by this whole "this is unprovoked and all of a sudden" and the proof is that fact that many people will read what I write here and interpret it as a support toward Putin when in reality I am just trying to be as realistic as I can here.
The fallout....poor choice of words...the results will be interesting to see over time. He may well have planned for a lot, but I can't imagine he expected his army to be failing so badly. If indeed the oligarchs have brought all their money home, it's worth half what it was.
Now, I'm one of those irrational unrealistic people who think that any shares they own in foreign companies should be liquidated and put into a fund to rebuild Ukraine. Ditto their boats and bizjets. But that might scare our oligarchs a little too much.
I still think all of this could have been solved around a table, with a couple of referendums with foreign oversight. Instead, we have carnage. I have no idea how this plays out at this point.
Took me a sec to get the fallout quip- I truly do not think anyone has the balls to fire a bomb off. But I did not think he would invade Ukraine either
I think of it more as panic than courage.
I see it the same way. Seems too calculated a man to not think at least this far ahead. Hopefully h is inept but I doubt it
His military’s capability might be less than we thought and my comment doesn’t touch on that fact for a reason. Their is a tremendous fog of war at the moment to make any judgments without real intelligence which right now is strictly for military leaders in that region alone. As these things go during war. Everything else we see is filtered, as Orwell said, through many mediums before getting to our eyeballs.
Seems to me this is "rational" for putin. The world knows he wants Ukraine and the rest of the old soviet states. He already took Crimea under Obama. The world (and especially putin) knows the US is in no position to act as the world's body guard anymore (due to social and political domestic issues, and the embarrassment of afghan withdrawal). I don't know how anyone could take them seriously right now. I also don't understand the sentiment you expressed that Russia is taking an economic beating. Yea the sanctions are doing something and making life hard for the Russian people (like putin cares), but all these countries talking tough are gonna go through their own terrible economic repercussions due to their dependence on Russian oil, because we/they all kneecapped our/their own energy sectors. Maybe my read on this is completely off but I think putin is gonna have us by the short and curlies for a while. I believe he is emboldened by some terrible decisions made under the current us administration.
What decisions of the current US administration? The US doesn't need Russian oil. The US isn't trying to be the world's bodyguard(The exit from Afghanistan was predetermined the day Trump said they would leave. As with all foreign wars, whoever invaded loses, as the invaded just waits for them to leave. This was always going to be a Gong Show). They are just a powerful part of NATO. Canada has a glorious opportunity to supply a part of Europe's fuel needs. The ruble has lost half its value, and the Russian stock exchange is afraid to open.
The Russian Army is now a punchline, and has lost its credibility. I think Putin will stay in power for exactly as long as his benefactors allow it. I suspect that clock is running as they watch their assets being seized and their bank accounts frozen.
I disagree with you there Mr. MacIntyre re your comment “all hope and very little substance”. Hope is a powerful force that when combined with strategic action moves mountains. If you are able to keep hope alive you fight another day. When hope is extinguished, it is truly over.
Hope is a force sustainer and plays an important role at the home front. But hope does not win campaigns and wars. Hope is not a defence for real violence. The greatest example of hope during conflict in our modern world happened during the Battle of Britain. But merely holding out through the German bombings wouldn’t have unseated Hitler’s evil empire, it still requires a capable and willing military force. To continue with the example, this is why it was the entrance of the US that turned the tides and not the tremendous hope displayed by the British people during the war.
I agree with your thoughtful comment - I guess what I was trying to articulate was that no victory would be possible without a strong belief that it is a possibility.
Absolutely agree with you there.
Good article. There are multiple venues for conflict: military, economic, communicaition and, before the conflict began, it seemed many pundits predicted that Russia had its bets covered on all three. It had a more powerful army. It surely anticipated the sanctions and had countermeasures. And, we've heard over and over how brilliantly they use channels -- new and old -- for propoganda and disinformation.
But, its military -- particularly it's logistics -- seem to be much less capable than anticipated and Ukraine seemed underestimated. It seems that the sanctions bit a lot harder than Putin expected and while they will also hurt us, Russia is running out of time in Ukraine. And, Ukraine proved to play the propoganda and communication game much, much better than I think anyone anticipated. They own the narrative just about everywhere except in Russia. Certainly, Biden's telegraphing exactly what Russia was going to do helped, but Ukraine is proving to be masterful as telling a good story, which is playing a significant role in capturing world attention and earning a LOT more international support than they would have otherwise.
Mike Tyson was once asked by a reporter about his fight plan with an upcoming opponent. His answer? "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” Russia had a plan, got punched in the mouth, and has been floundering ever since. The expectation they set -- around the world -- was that they would walk in and install a government prostrate to Russia. They have not. Even if a peace plan includes disputed regions and a roll back of sanctions -- pretty significant wins -- they have not lived up to the expectations they set and will be seen as the loser of the war they started.
Humans are natural storytellers -- we like a compelling narrative. Ukraine has one. Russia does not.
Thank you, Joti. Stay safe.
"Russia has specifically addressed foreign fighters in Ukraine, warning that if they’re caught they won’t be getting POW treatment". I wonder if Russia is mentioning the same thing is likely for those who join in its recruiting posters in Syria?
Five million views, just from the 370 million in North America and the 500 million in Europe? Wow!
I'm sure social media is why all those Ukrainians joined up. Unless they heard it first from their neighbours and relatives.
It reads like the author saw this 3 minute "SNL" parody a few years ago, and thought it was a serious congratulations to "Scott" for saving the world by agreeing with social media crusades.
https://www.thewrap.com/snl-music-video-facebook-activists-louis-ck-racism/
Really, I think the credit goes to "video", whatever its medium of distribution, and that's still mostly actual TV. If journalists hadn't let themselves be embedded, if they'd captured video of the very similar explosions in residential and downtown Baghdad (except for the oil ministry, infamously), the Arab hospitals, there would have been more urgency to end that war.
This is the first time there's been real-time, high-quality video feeds of what's happening to the *defending* side in an industrial-age war of artillery and aerial bombardment, uncensored.
Some of that is part of the social media age, though. It's a country, like ours, full of people with cameras, mostly on their phones. Maybe they share them via social media directly, but in many cases, the video gets picked up by either social media personalities with a big following or by traditional news outlets.
And, it's not just the availability of video, it's the perspective. There's a 'currating' of what gets a lot of attention that helps set a very positive narrative for Ukraine. The older woman cursing out the Russian solder, offering him seeds for his pockets so that sunflowers will grow when he dies in the Ukraine. The Russian prisionor allowed to call his Mom at home in Russia. The Russian tanks out of gas, with drivers bewildered that they were even in the Ukraine. The more recent scenes of the results of Russian bombing on Ukraine civilians. It all tells a very compelling story. It's David vs. Golliath.
I'm not naive enough to think it's the whole story, or even necessarily an accurate representation of what's happening everywhere in Ukraine. But, it seems to be part of the story -- it's rooted in some kind of truth, whereas the Russian narrative seems detached from reality. That contrast seems to be winning a lot more international support for Ukraine than they probably would have earned otherwise; certainly more than in 2014, when the story wasn't a cut and dry, good vs. evil.
Good vs. Evil?
“With foreign boots on the ground, even if they’re not backed by foreign governments, the battle becomes the world vs. Russia, of good against evil. The closer to home it gets, the more the world scrolls and sympathizes.” From the piece itself.