This week on On The Line, host Jen Gerson sits down with Gregory Jack, senior vice president of public affairs at Ipsos, to talk about separatist sentiment in Alberta and Quebec — and what it actually means.
Ipsos has just released an in-depth survey examining support for separation in both provinces. As in previous polling, about 30 per cent of Albertans say they would vote to leave Canada. But Jack explains why that topline number can be misleading. His team went a step further than most previous surveys, stress-testing separatist sentiment by attaching real-world consequences to the idea, such as the loss of a Canadian passport.
When respondents were forced to grapple with those trade-offs, support for separation dropped by roughly half. The results suggest that a sizeable share of self-described separatists are less committed to independence than they are frustrated with Ottawa — angry, alienated, but not necessarily eager to form a new country.
That matters, because separation is no longer a purely theoretical debate. Alberta separatists are currently moving ahead with a petition process that could eventually lead to a provincial referendum. And south of the border, American commentators have begun weighing in, confidently asserting that Albertans would jump at the chance to join the United States — a claim Jack methodically fact-checks.
It’s a grounded, data-driven conversation about grievance, identity, and how easily political frustration can be mistaken for genuine separatist resolve.
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